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Strategies & Market Trends : Mu Gamma Lambda -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AugustWest who wrote (1488)	6/30/2001 3:02:35 PM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10077

Sounds like a lot of what people have been saying around here and on other threads. 1) The consumer isn't spending - the fed is now cooking the books 2) The fed is going to lower rates more. I know I have pounded this issue. If you look at the drop in rates alone it seems large and fast. When you consider that the fed had increased rates the year before by what...1.75%? It's not that huge a drop. 3) Unemployment looks like it's on the rise....that will hurt spending. 4) Credit card debt is huge - Doppler has pounded this issue. If I recall correctly for every man, woman and child there is 15k on credit card....I dunno...lots of numbers out there but I think we can all agree that consumer debt is high. 5) Blowing through the lows - I think that is very possible. When you look at the charts it looks like we could see 1600 nas / 9100 dow. If that doesn't hold the next logical area would be 1350 nas / 7600 dow or around the Oct 98 lows. After that - You make the call. I've read people (YOU FOR ONE) I respect say 900 nas / 6000 dow. I can't imagine what that would do to our economy.....No I can imagine - I just don't want to! 6) Almost to a person the people I talk to say business is soft. I live in almost a recession proof area yet people here can feel it a little bit. When we feel it here....it's starting to get bad in many areas. 7) Psychology - This is a huge factor. People aren't stupid! They don't need Greenspan to tell them when things are tight. Sooner or later this will kill support in the market and I don't want to be around when the dam breaks. So.....while I hate to hear what he's saying I'd be a fool not to factor it in to the equation. I think in a PM to you I said I thought that we needed to see the Oct 98 lows before we could make a move with any conviction to the upside - I still believe that. Below those lows I hate to think what evil things are waiting for us......It could get ugly. I believe it was YOU who said the potential lows could make the Oct 98 lows look like a picnic.....geez.....I want to be in Jamaica if that happens!