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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: S100 who wrote (13208)	6/30/2001 2:28:13 PM
From: S100	Respond to of 34857

Look Out Below: 2002 Estimates Will Soon Start Falling The sky hasn't yet fallen on next year's consensus projections of earnings growth for European technology companies, but look out below. This column recently suggested that profit estimates for 2002 over 2001 -- particularly those of the tech firms -- looked optimistic given the inventory buildups in many industries served by tech firms, as well as the worsening economic slowdown evident in Europe and globally. A glance at the accompanying chart put together by Kevin Gardiner, a strategist for Credit Suisse First Boston, shows clearly that analysts have been so busy slashing estimates for tech profits in 2001 over 2000 that they've paid scant attention to cuts that might be needed to 2002 figures. That introduces an artificial arithmetic bias that pushes next year's profit-growth expectations to an abnormally high 70% or so, Gardiner points out. This tendency is at work across the broad market, but it's most visible in the tech group, he adds. That industry's analysts have been inundated with profit warnings about 2001 results, but human nature being what it is, it's likely they won't get around to reducing 2002 estimates appreciably until the fall or winter, and then in lump-sum fashion, Gardiner maintains. The divergence is so great now that "you have to wonder if the 2002 [tech] estimates can even be considered live," the CSFB strategist adds. In other words, an investor trying to use the basic measure of share valuation, or price to estimated future earnings, for companies such as Alcatel, Ericsson, Nokia or Siemens, for example, may find the 2002 earnings-per-share divisor in this important metric increasingly unreliable and therefore probably not useful. "The figures for 2002 are going to come down big time," Gardiner predicts. But this is where he puts on his contrarian hat. When the inevitable drop in 2002 tech estimates comes later this year, it could prove cathartic, he believes. Provided 2001 earnings estimates have stabilized, and there is evidence of a global economic recovery, then investors might take the "decisive crack" in 2002 forecasts as a signal that a bottom for tech share prices has been reached, he asserts. snip interactive.wsj.com

To: S100 who wrote (13208)	6/30/2001 3:49:14 PM
From: 49thMIMOMander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

"I'm not an expert in this industry, I just try.." Intellectually honest guy!! Ilmarinen Must have spent many hours making sure he didn't forget that line after getting a list of possible questions.

To: S100 who wrote (13208)	7/1/2001 6:47:11 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

S100, << Have you listened to this? >> Yes. I thought it was quite good I like Clayton Christensen. I don't agree with everything he says, but I like him. << He seems to feel Nokia is going the way of the buggy whip makers. >> LOL! I commented on this and his WAP misperception (Euro thing) here: Message 16019319 Also a Fool post excerpt here commenting on Peter Drucker, Geoffrey Moore and Clayton Christensen : For those who have not listened to the audio of Christensen comments on 3G, I strongly suggest you take the time. It is a very good primer on the innovators dilemma. The Hambrecht synopsis is accurate but very incomplete. The 60 minutes is very information rich and Christensen is so damn smart and so easy to listen to, I enjoyed it very much and I will listen again. leviticus.boards.fool.com - Eric -