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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale_laroy who wrote (45862)	6/30/2001 6:51:14 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: market growth from Q4 2000 to Q4 2001 will have to be in excess of 30% to result in a processor shortage. Add in the capacity available to VIA, and the possibility of a shortage becomes pretty much zero. AthlonMP is going nowhere fast AthlonMP is still barely available, give it a chance. MSI's $200 board ships in a month or so, and, combined with the surprisingly strong performance of the dual processor Athlons, should give AMD 10% to 15% of that market by Q4 - but at ASPs of around $150. Intel will have to cut prices in its server line drastically, or they'll really lose a lot of share. By the end of Q3 even the small form factor notebooks using the small package Athlon 4 will be established Even the existing chip is pretty compelling: the 1GHZ HP Notebook sold at Best Buy for about $2,200 has a 15" screen, CDRW, DVD, and 256 meg of RAM. This is maybe a $165 ASP part, but they'll sell a lot of them. Intel will have to cut prices in its mobile line drastically, or they'll really lose a lot of share. AMD's SOI is something of a wild card - if it reduces power use enough, AMD could dominate the mobile market and ASPs on those chips could be quite a bit higher, at this point I'm not expecting such an outcome. , I anticipate that the lowest speed grade Clawhammer will be introduced at under $200, possibly as low as $149, and even the fastest speed grade desktop Barton will also be priced under $200. Sounds reasonable, but those parts are still a few quarters out. Meanwhile, I'd expect that in Q4 morgans above 1GHZ (from Austin) will probably sell for $65, with 1GHZ parts going for $50. But AMD is a very profitable company under these circumstances: For Q4, maybe, around, 4 million Durons at $55 ASP from Austin From Dresden: 0.3 million AthlonMP at $150 ASP 2 million Mobile Athlons/Durons at $125 ASP 3 million Athlon at $125 ASP Gives AMD an ASP of about $96 - fabulous for AMD with its quarterly costs of under $1 Billion, and additional earnings from its money making flash and embedded chip divisions. Meanwhile, Intel would be selling 0.1 million Itanium at $1,000 2 million Xeon at $300 8 million mobile Celeron/PIII/P4 at $150 6 million P4 at $150 3 million PIII at $100 6 million Celeron at $60 For an ASP of about $138 - Disaster for Intel, with quarterly costs running around $6 Billion dollars due to its money losing "other" divisions. I don't see things much different for Q1 of next year, everything from both companies will run 5% to 10% faster but cost the same. Just my opinion. Regards, Dan

To: dale_laroy who wrote (45862)	6/30/2001 8:51:11 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

dale: INTC is currently in a tailspin vis a vis AMd which is now verging on 2 years...Nothing, but nothing suggests that rate of relative change in the 2 companies that we have witnessed is about to change...Oh yes, for the past 2 years we've heard all about the P3 graduation to 0.13u, the P4's siperlative feature set and now Tualatin and on and on and on...In the meantime, AMD's Athy has gained 23% market share and the "here and now" Athlon 4 (as opposed to the some-time-in-the-future-if-ever Tualtin) is poised to capture 25% mobile market share in less than 1 year... No, AMD doesn't spend big bucks on blue men and orange pipes to hype an overpriced and underperforming product and no, AMD's PR people aren't paid the big bucks to keep the wheel turning...all AMD does is continue to deliver superior price/performing products like the Athy, like the Athlon 4, like the server products recently introduced, like the nVidia products soon to be unleashed and like the workstation products to be unveiled in September...AMD performs in the "here and now"...Its major competitor only wishes it had something more than Tualatin and P4 on their sorry currrent states to compete with the "here and now" Athy and Athlon 4... AMD's R&D people are spitting out real evolutionary product quietly and efficiently while INTC's Pr dep't promises of some-time-in-the-future-if-ever competitive seem more far-fetched by the day...Contrary to what many here seem to be assuming, AMD's product lineup gap is widening as each monthj passes by only AMD doesn't hype it, they just continually bring new evolutionary product to market!