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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (138450)	6/30/2001 6:57:12 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 186894

Wanted to share this with you, Paul - what do you think? Re: market growth from Q4 2000 to Q4 2001 will have to be in excess of 30% to result in a processor shortage. Add in the capacity available to VIA, and the possibility of a shortage becomes pretty much zero. AthlonMP is going nowhere fast AthlonMP is still barely available, give it a chance. MSI's $200 board ships in a month or so, and, combined with the surprisingly strong performance of the dual processor Athlons, should give AMD 10% to 15% of that market by Q4 - but at ASPs of around $150. Intel will have to cut prices in its server line drastically, or they'll really lose a lot of share. By the end of Q3 even the small form factor notebooks using the small package Athlon 4 will be established Even the existing chips is pretty compelling: the 1GHZ HP Notebook sold at Best Buy for about $2,200 has a 15" screen, CDRW, DVD, and 256 meg of RAM. I'd guess this is only a $165 ASP part for AMD, but they'll sell a lot of them. Intel will have to cut prices in its mobile line drastically, or they'll really lose a lot of share. I anticipate that the lowest speed grade Clawhammer will be introduced at under $200, possibly as low as $149, and even the fastest speed grade desktop Barton will also be priced under $200. Sounds reasonable, but those parts are still a few quarters out. Meanwhile, I'd expect that in Q4 morgans above 1GHZ (from Austin) will probably sell for $65, with 1GHZ parts going for $50. But AMD is a very profitable company under these circumstances: For Q4, maybe, around, 4 million Durons at $55 ASP from Austin From Dresden: 0.3 million AthlonMP at $150 ASP 2 million Mobile Athlons/Durons at $125 ASP 3 million Athlon at $125 ASP Gives AMD an ASP of about $96 - fabulous for AMD with its quarterly costs of under $1 Billion, and additional earnings from its money making flash and embedded chip divisions. Meanwhile, Intel would be selling 0.1 million Itanium at $1,000 2 million Xeon at $300 8 million mobile Celeron/PIII/P4 at $150 6 million P4 at $150 3 million PIII at $100 6 million Celeron at $60 For an ASP of about $138 - Disaster for Intel, with quarterly costs running around $6 Billion dollars due to its money losing "other" divisions. I don't see things much different for Q1 of next year, everything from both companies will run 5% to 10% faster but cost the same. Just my opinion. Dan