Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (48601)	6/30/2001 9:27:14 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jerome. there you go stockconsultant.com No more interpreting charts, this site does it for you.<just kidding - I don't use it> G.

To: Jerome who wrote (48601)	7/1/2001 11:45:53 AM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

RE: "...why give it up? Next thing you know You will be buying stocks for their dividends" Jerome, Just to clarify a bit: From day one I've been looking for an opportunity to buy AMAT near the cycle low. I missed my best chance in early April. I was certain at that time that there would be more chances to buy below 40. While I was correct in thinking that the sector would continue to be weak, I was wrong in predicting how AMAT would react. The stock has held up like a champ. Frankly, I've been amazed at how well it's maintained its price. I think the bottom-line is that investors learned from past cycles and a) most of those who were holding shares didn't freak-out and sell when things looked ugly, and b) new longs have continued to buy shares figuring that the cycle low was close enough. (BTW, If this thinking is correct, it may also be limiting factor when the cycle begins hitting its highs?) Now another quarter has passed, the sector is still weak and I see no real reason for a change in how AMAT trades. I suspect that over the short-term we will see more of the same ups and downs. Like I said in my earlier post, I may still still trade AMAT if I see a good play. Two things have changed however, a) I just removed a large chunk of my trading capital and moved it into a long position (thus I don't have as much to play with and will trade smaller positions), and b) as time moves on, we increase the chances that there will be some piece of good news from the sector that will spike the price up. This concerns me because I work with relatively small percentages and a large overnight loss can be a killer to make up. I've been playing almost exclusively the dark-side, but now I'm considering other plays. I'm not giving up trading, I'm simply concerned that the risk scenario may be changing. I'm still evaluating the current environment and trying to determine the best strategy going forward. In the mean time, I have no problem taking some chips off the table and locking them into what I believe is a reasonably solid long-term play. AdvocateDevil