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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (79415)	6/30/2001 11:50:54 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

Ibexx, Great points. According to Prudential, the end of June rebalancing of Russell 3000 shall have a significantly beneficial effect on tech issues. Relative weighting of the latter is expected to increase by a significant percentage (3-5%), and a similar effect will be seen with Russell midcaps, to a lesser extent however. The only index I really noticed was the Russell 2000 small caps. I guess the Russell 3000 would have the big caps in it...but there can't be too much indexing to it...or am I wrong in that presumption? I guess the move up on techs could also have been partly due to this before that halt. ML's Osha has claimed that semis as a whole will see their trough sometime in the month of August - that's CYQ3 BTW, not CYQ4. This is why Merrill Lynch's recent bearish comments on semiconductors just don't make sense. Why would they be so negative when they are forecasting a trough in August? They are the most bearish of the major brokers on the semiconductor group. I get the feeling that they are about to start upgrading...otherwise a forecast of a trough in August makes no sense....as you noted the stocks move up ahead of fundamental improvements. I had noticed that Mulonovich, who heads the technology analysts group, seems to sound a little less negative than I had heard him before. I was joking a couple of weeks ago about having a contest to predict when they would start upgrading the major semiconductor and other tech stocks. I am predicting that they do it in July. Lets see if they suprise us this week.<g> ------------------------------------------------------- This part is a repetition of an old post I did: I had posted this Tom Kurlak article on the same day Merrill upgraded a few small semiconductor names...you can see at in the last paragraph that he takes a shot at Merrill for doing the upgrades while being bearish on the bigger names. It is a short piece but he made a lot of sense to me. Maybe the Merrill Lynch analysts read it too<g> thestreet.com