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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (48604)	7/1/2001 8:25:49 AM
From: Jerome	Respond to of 70976

What do you think will happen to AMAT? Here is what I think will happen to AMAT. (thinking has got me into trouble before). Amat rallies slightly on the earnings report to 55---58. And then it settles back to the 48 to 54 range. The company announces that things are not getting worse, but they are also not getting much better. NVLS increases its share price advance to the 60 to 65 range. This is a market that's looking for a reason to rally, and will reward a company that has good profits, and punish a company that has little or no profits. Look at ORCL and SUNW. ORCL is heading to the low 20's while SUNWis being ignored. I wish AMAT would report a great quarter. It would be a driver for the rest of the industry. When Brian reported that 30 fabs are taking a shutdown for a short period of time, it was a clue of things to come.Shut down fabs don't even need replacement parts. I wish more posters would make some short term predictions. It would give this thread a good sense of balance. Option players as myself are in the prediction business. Some things don't work out as planned, but that's life. If I don't have a clue as to why a stock will move north or south I will not buy it. For myself I will be watching NVLS and other early reporters (XLNX?). This will be a clue as to how other stocks in the group will be treated. I don't crunch a whole lot of numbers because long term trends are not good short term indicators.I do read a lot and try to get a sense of what expectations are for any given stock that I own. The short term players on this thread (Jacob,AD, KDAVY) have been very good in predicting short term trends. Even the long term players would benefit by paying attention to them. (looking for entry points). This is the quarter where the talking heads will be saying things like..."earnings do matter" (not very insightful). The trick is to talk a whole lot on CNBC and yet say nothing overall. Sorrry that I can't be of much help......Jerome