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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (7791)	7/1/2001 11:06:08 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

>>have you taken into consideration that the market is lower than when greenspan began cutting rates and he is near the end of the line? The market was higher after he started raising rates. No big deal on timing. >>alan greenspan can't force people to buy things they don't need can he? No he can't push on a string. However if a business process has attractive ROI (particularly savings to fixed overhead) it will be deployed. There is no shortage of need for savings, ever. The whole productivity boom wasn't built on "nice to have" technology. It was spent on technology that got more done for less money. Then the only bet is how long this all will go on until there's marginal return. I know I'll be dead before this is halfway over. This is as big as railroads were in 1840. Like the railroads we have seen the first bust. That didn't stop anything. >>you have never have refuted this point bill. you have never satisfactorily answered my assertion that bandwidth will continue to grow at high rates like you would hope, but not necessarily profitably for the companies supplying that bandwidth. "That bandwidth" is a whole lot of different protocols. A bet on telecom equipment here must be built on understanding the creative distruction happening in the whole industry. The pay day for the wolf pack of next-generation leaders can be huge because they're small and are getting the incremental spending, all of which is packet-based. The huge market for the big class four and five carrier switches built by Nortel and Lucent evaporated. It's an IP world now. It is critical to differenciate those delivering IP solutions to where the demand is. >>large companies like cisco are out for blood Cisco just dropped out of the Ciena space, for example.