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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhelmers who wrote (12723)	7/2/2001 10:38:39 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78565

<<This year I think that NITE could earn as much as 80cents/shr even in the current environment. That's not bad>>Not bad, but not probable either. Zacks has 30 day consensus @.57 with top estimate at .80, and the est trend is declining....Analysts tend to optimistic and consensus takes awhile to adjust to declining fundamentals. I would expect the outlook to further deteriorate given the trend. I won't pretend to fully grasp what's happened to the business model, but I get the impression it's either broken or badly damaged. <<they have the option of no longer paying for order flow>>I have the option of no longer paying my gas bill too, but if I exercise that option, the gas will cease to flow. Might not a similar fate befall NITE's order flow? <<Let's face it, as the trading margins shrink, this is where the business has to go.>>Why can't disintermediation continue to increase with ECN's and direct cross-trade software enabling the trend? <<Management changes have occurred but the top two guys are not going anywhere. They own too much of the stock.>>I wasn't concerned that they'd go, I'm concerned that they stay...but can't engineer a transformation to a new business model because they are traders, not visionary, creative leaders. I'm sorry to sound negative, and I really do appreciate your comments and perspective on this. The market position and retrospective value are very attractive. I shall continue to watch it. Thanks, bob