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To: maceng2 who wrote (110983)	7/2/2001 7:07:35 AM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 436258

McLaren does not see much in this market. mclarenreport.com.au stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf]

To: maceng2 who wrote (110983)	7/2/2001 9:30:12 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

>> What if? You can "what if" yourself as much as you like << successful traders tend to approach trades with the idea of how much can i lose, rather than how rich am i going to be if everything turns out perfectly. i was merely trying to point out that most of the people these days throw projections of gold going to four digit levels or several thousand dollars and ounce, it's going to explode etc. occasionally cautious gold bulls will concede that gold might have to retest the 250's level, but i don't see anyone suggesting that gold could slide to $200 or even lower. oftentimes the market does the unexpected and stymies the conventional wisdom and throws everyone for a loop. that would be going to $200/oz in this case because no one seems to be expecting that. also, all you have to do is look at historical examples to see that often times after years and years of relentless decline, bear markets end with panic dumping and a dramatic move downward. total capitulation if you will. no one could have ever imagined stocks would have gone as high as they did, and i believe you should prepare yourself for the possibility that gold could go much lower than you ever imagined. >> Fiat currencies will destroy the value of gold further??? I find that hard to believe << i simply pointed out that the strong dollar has real implications for the price of gold. who is to say the dollar can't go higher? the dollar is a bubble just like other bubbles, and it will probably have panic buying in the face of poor fundamentals just like internet stocks did last year. speaking of gold, gold ignored changing fundamentals in october 1979 and rallied even harder in manic style when it should have been tapering off. a couple of years ago greenspan was raising rates hand over fist but it couldn't slow down the nasdaq. a world market crash couldn't slow down the nikkei in 1987, it went parabolic for another two years. so i expect that the dollar will go dramatically higher before it tops out even though most people are baffled by it's strength and think it should be lower. that's just the way it works. cracks start to appear in the system, fundamentals appear to be making a turn, and the market does the complete exact opposite of what the conventional wisdom would expect, and it does it in grandiose fashion. i could go on and on with example after example. how about one that is cited often on this thread? conventional wisdom said don't fight the fed, historical easing has to make the market go higher. yet the market is lower and defied conventional wisdom once again. the strength in the dollar is defying the gold bulls and the inflation that is starting to surface is not having any material impact. in fact i expect to see signs of inflation become even more pervasive, yet gold will probably go down anyway just to confound everyone! just about the time all the gold bulls are blown out of the water and throw their hands up in disgust, claiming that the market just isn't rational, it will bottom out. >> Something will go wrong. I can almost feel it in my bones. << well obviously something has already gone very wrong with our markets. yet gold is lower than it was when our markets were pricing in blue skies. so i want you to tell me exactly what is going to make gold explode out of the gates. what is it going to take? >> Argue away...tell us all how gold will be devalued further. << what's the matter, you can't handle a dissenting opinion? is your confidence that shaky?