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Technology Stocks : AremisSoft Corporation (AREM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ben Wa who wrote (491)	7/2/2001 3:19:54 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 683

<<My understanding of arem is that they have subscription based accounting which is a conservative method of revenue recognition>>That's my understanding. If one were looking to maximize reported EPS, that wouldn't be the way...OTOH if one wanted reliable, visible earnings stream with less chance of ugly surprises...that's the way to go. <<Regarding Bulgaria - you can probably receive 10 opinions on the modernization of the health care system if you ask 5 beaurocrats.>>Absolutely. This and any government related contract in an emerging market country with squirrley politics is going to be at some degree of risk. I would estimate that the expected value [Pupside+Pdownside+P*realistic] of the Bulgarian contract would be near the stated amount with potential upside offsetting potential downside...but in any event the AREM investment case doesn't depend on it since it's only 5% of expected revenues for the contract period. The only way I see the short case working is either pervasive fraud [<.1% base probability in stocks with over 500mm cap]or timely trade on a dip.