Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (45952)	7/2/2001 1:16:09 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Paul: "Re: "The partial Athlon-Desktp-ASP went down this quarter from over 150$ to under 100$!!! Furthermore the Duron-Desktop looks also not very nice - it went down from round about 55$ to 43$!!! " What does all this mean ? " Not especially good for AMD...Perhaps a harbinger of doom for INTC...If AMD's ASP's (still iffy, given new product intros at higher ASP's in q2) got knocked in q2, imagine what happened toINTC's ASP's!

To: Paul Engel who wrote (45952)	7/2/2001 1:22:39 PM
From: dhellman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

What's Buggi mean about partial ASP? He added this shortly after his first post this morning: "My ASP opinion for this quarter 2 I have forgotten a few things ... To my previous post I only wanted to mention, that the Athlon and the Duron ASP numbers are "only" weekly numbers - you can't see the number's as a standalone. I collect all weekly numbers and then I will make one average index, that is higher than the lowest number at the end of the quarter. The weekly numbers give "only" the short-term direction and especially this development is very negative. :-( Furthermore I want to try to forecast the development for Q3 and I think, that this will be a very difficult task for AMD. When you look at the last weekly ASP numbers, you can see weakness all over the Athlon and the Duron. Prices went down sharply, but the pieces from the higher parts didn't go up so fast, that this development could stop. A bad scenario! In my blended (50/50) ASP Desktop measurement you can see, that the ASP falled from 103$ in the first week of this quarter to 71$ at the last week of the quarter, with an average number of 88,6$. Here is the problem for Q3! - all the time from Q3 we have to go through with bad Desktop ASP numbers and I guess they will be very bad. A quarter ago I didn't see this development, but when the economy didn't start to accellerate, then the price- pressure will go on and we will see Desktop ASP numbers under 70$!!!, when I go for 50% Duron and 50% Athlon. What can the A4 and the new Mobil-Line do for us? It is very difficult to predict, but I don't see big big upside trends here, that the Q2 number will be reached. It will not go! Want can the mobiles do for us? - I think, that the notebooknumbers with AMD CPU's will go up, but how much? 100.000, 200.000, 300.000 ...??? compare to Q2. How many MP CPU's will be on the sale? In my "ASP Simulation" part of my sheets, I have tried some things - here is a scenario for Q3: ALL CPU's = 8Mio. Mobile+MP = 0,8Mio. = 10% Mobile+MP-ASP is 70% higher than DesktopASP -< for this quarter it would give a boost from around 6,5$ over the desktop-ASP for the blended ASP. Furthermore I could make a very optimistic scenario for Q3: ALL CPU's = 8Mio. Mobile+MP = 1,0Mio. = 12,5% Mobile+MP-ASP is 100% higher than DesktopASP -< for this quarter it would give a boost from around 11,5$ over the desktop-ASP for the blended ASP. Here you can see, that the Mobile und the MP-Parts could max. give a 10$ boost to our Desktop-ASP's and when this part goes to 70$ everybody could see the downward pressure for Q3. It sounds a little bit bearish, but Q3 will be a very challeging quarter. The ASP will definitly go down and not 1 or 2 bucks - it will be 5-10$ I think - and when the overall CPU pieces goes not up in a big way, I can now see the earnings problems for the future. Not nice. BUGGI" ragingbull.lycos.com