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To: Les H who wrote (277)	7/2/2001 4:04:01 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1328

most recent report on adjusted closes for Friday: biz.yahoo.com

To: Les H who wrote (277)	7/2/2001 6:29:45 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1328

Les: Point of clarification. Vix closing print back in August in the 18s was for two days only at the very end of the month and at the very peak. Looks like there were six prints at 19 for the month. So what did you miss in the S & P 500 by missing those low Vix prints of 18 and 19 which were consecutive? I calculate .73%. Big deal. I see a miss 3.8% on the NDX. Wow. No matter how anybody cuts it, the VIX is a big on a big freaking sell signal now. The point is that while it can go lower the risk for the return is ridiculous because at this juncture going forward this thing is going to roll back up and take the broader market down and by being long at this juncture one risks taking that ride.

To: Les H who wrote (277)	7/2/2001 7:56:18 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 1328

What to expect now. July 2, 2001. Ord Oracle. The S&P is in the process of testing the June 21 high (1249.30) on the September S&P. Today's high was 1248. To ideally test a high the market needs to break that high by at least one tick. The test of a high will determine if the market is going to pass through that high and head higher or back away from that high and head lower. The key factors in determining a breakout or a retracement is the volume. A test of a previous high on at least a 10% decrease in volume implies the market will retrace back down. A test of a previous high on higher volume implies the market will break out to the upside. The June 21 high had volume of 1.45 billions shares and today's volume was 1.09 billion shares. However, today's rally did not trade above the June 21 high and therefore no determination can be made yet whether the market will break through or retrace down. Tomorrow's action should tell the story. For the moment, it is our guess that the market will test the June 21 high on lighter volume and than pull back. If a pull back does materialize, the first support is the previous low near the 1211 area. Therefore, this is not a big trade. No new trades yet. The NDX may be near a short term high also. Friday the NDX hit 1865 on volume of 1.99 billion shares. Today the NDX hit a high of 1864 on volume of 1.35 billion shares. Since the NDX did not carry above Friday's high today, nothing conclusive can be determined for the moment. If the NDX trades above the high of 1865 on lighter volume than 1.99 in the next day or so, a possible bearish signal could be generated. We would also like to see a bearish candlestick pattern coincide with the light volume re-test to help confirm the potential sell signal. If a sell signal is triggered in the next day or two, the first area of support is the 1770 level. We will wait for this trade to set up. On previous commentary, we said, "A bull market has begun on the monthly charts in Gold that has an upside target (according to Advance GET) of near 330. . . . . . It is worth remembering that a lot of gold stock we watch broke above their previous highs on increased volume. This is the type of action that appears in bull markets." The XAU did not take off to the upside in late June like we hoped. It is now possible the consolidation might last into late August. However, another big rally is expected and the bull market is expected to continue into next year and possible longer. marketweb.com traders-talk.com