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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (5509)	7/2/2001 8:23:24 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

This game will blowup. Eventually they all do... I just want to be off that train, and already catching the next one... Which is why I believe in hedge funds that might be shorting one sector, such as technology, and being long on another, such as energy or biotech, with proper protective derivatives in place to protect NAV, while also using a certain percentage to "juice" returns.... Sending cash to the safety of bonds during market skids and then redeploying it back in at market bottoms, providing a source of market support. Hawk

To: TobagoJack who wrote (5509)	7/2/2001 8:43:25 PM
From: jim black	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

(Jay, I must say you had me by the family jewels for a few moments, but then I saw nothing confirmatory on a brief search for confirmation and thought, oh, Jay is having fun...) I guess I passed the stress test since i have 5% of my retirement money in GG, SWC, and FN.Tor, the rest in short term US treasuries and a few treasury zeroes...gave me an idea for something that might be fun, and food for thought. We most of us on this thread try to watch our arses, expecting the current situation to be unsustainable. Sometimes I daydream about what exact scenario will actually provoke a debacle, not unlike LTCM or Jay's phantom company that brings all hell loose. Anyone interested in posing a specific event, possibly now visible to some perspicacious individual that will trigger the fall of king dollar? It might be interesting to go on record as identifying a specific event(s) to set the ball rolling downhill. Of course many scenarios have been sketched, war in Mid-East, assassination of the House of Saud, the failure of a major US bank, an earthquake of magnitude Richter 8, epicenter Tokyo...all possibilities of varying probablities from 0-.3333,etc. But for grins, how about taking a stab for posterity at the specific event that triggers what we all(well, many, anyway) feel is likely? I was not yet born(quite), but Orson Welles did quite a number with his invasion by Mars broadcast, and I daresay if Jay had had a little broader audience than this heavily lurked thread we might have seen Black Monday-Jay Chen style. I consider it frivolous but acceptable with a 2 day July 4th holiday after tomorrow. (That is supposed to be an apology for frivolity, with everyone understanding people with working crystal balls are disqualified. jim black