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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (79450)	7/3/2001 10:59:58 AM
From: eichler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Kymar, As usual, appreciate your thoughts. Agree with your well-considered ideas....well, I don't know about the triskedecaphobical numerology (lol)... (quite a mouthful too) ggg On points 3 and 4, I think the "apparent" weakness of the pattern calls to question the bearish implications and I think the trading action and pattern successfully disarms the fear of a great many traders, which I believe may well be the point. The market struggle pits everyone against everyone else, all trying to plump their trading account to the expense of their competitors. If the market were going to take money from a mind-set of investors...seems the smaller investor bulls are the easiest prey - being far more prevalent than the bears (human nature) and presumably less savvy and informed than the institutions and commercials. An effective decline IMO would be best disguised in such a way as to lure in the greatest number of potential losers before the actual rug-pulling (should it even occur) takes place. The toying with the neckline (now) and bounce after all appeared lost (6/14-15) would be necessary to beat the most number of players effectively. When the neckline broke, as oft discussed and anticipated as the pattern and break were, the element of surprise was missing. Perhaps too many anticipated the decline imagined and were too prepared. I too noted with amusement as you said how quickly conventional wisdom went from "re-test of lows" to buy tech for Summer rally. Again, I think that shows how effective a weak rally aborted the retest psychology and lured investors back into the fray. I believe we are now well-positioned to do some real damage. Sure, another aborted crash could occur, perhaps a long boring series of meek rallies and aborted crashes would effectively suck the life-blood out of trading accounts as well as or better than an actual hard tumble. In any case, as I strolled in late once again and see a preponderance of red on my chart watch-list, I note that the look of the daily compx appears to have turned the corner of the current "rally" as stochastics appear to be rounding the corner and perhaps over the coming days crossing down. So far, an ominous lower high and low than yesterday, if it sticks. ADX D- turned up and D+ heading down. I think a valid downtrend line has further been established connecting the three points of the highs of 5/22, 6/7, 7/2. Drawing a parallel line connecting the lows of 5/30, 6/20 defines a downtrend channel with the next apparent target around the 1850 level. Looks very much to me that is where compx is headed next and given the periods between highs and lows of late, I would estimate the next low mid to late next week. In short, I think the bears will rule for the next several trading sessions. That's my opinion, correct or not, we shall see. Best of trading luck, may you get nothing but lucky numbers! ggg Regards, Eichler