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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (1879)	7/3/2001 4:41:59 PM
From: Don S.Boller	Respond to of 2293

Michael: I have to agree with you...the "Bear" has not finished taking his toll...some will SURVIVE - SOME WILL NOT. I leave to each to decide where AVNX fits. BWDIK. Don

To: The Ox who wrote (1879)	7/5/2001 5:14:11 AM
From: rainwater	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

Fair analysis... but I missed getting into CSCO long ago that way... and MSFT... anyway.. revenues don't tell the entire story... as the drop was caused by Worldcom and decrease in PowerFilter sales... if you are following AVNX for its technology.. you should know that POwerFilter is a legacy technology and the functionality is already incorporated in the newer products... In contrast PowerMux showed increased revenues... that's where the growth is and the paradigm that may propel this company... I need to check their latest numbers for a re-confirmation of the last quarter ... as this is GOOD not BAD for AVNX... the only guys I would watch for are Chorum ... and they are private... read it this way... if it is getting hard for AVNX it must be even harder for Chorum... GREAT... less competition... all said... I think a lot depends on timing.... if Alan Greenspan convinces banks to lend to carriers and convinces carriers that capital spending is a safe option... then the stars will shine for AVNX... if not, who knows what can happen....

To: The Ox who wrote (1879)	7/8/2001 12:34:07 PM
From: dday	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

"Price to sales ratio around 7x!!" A bit late is responding to this but my 2 cents worth anyway. PSR's are a valid fundamental measurement for tech companies. And I would generally agree that 7x is a bit too rich for most. I think, however, that you do have to use some 'projections' in assessing this measurement. Sure, $18 mil. x 4 = $72 mil. That divided by # of shares @ est 65 mil = a little over $1 per/share in current revenue. Let's call it $1 even fully diluted for arguments sake. Let's consider what revenues might look like in 2 to 3 years. Let's assume by 2004, AVNX is now doing $325 million annual run rate. (I am pulling this # out of the air for illustration purposes only). Now we have $5 per share in revenue and at 4x revenue a $20 stock. A triple in three years is an excellent ROI imho. Of course, if you subscribe to the perma bear theory that predicts a total collapse of US economy and global depression with no relief in sight until 2010, then you should bury your cash in a big mattress. <gg> . Simply speaking, PSR measurements (and I am a big fan of them as a tool and have used them extensively for 18 of the 21 years I have in this biz) must be placed in context and not used arbitrarily. Retailers have lower PSRs than drugs etc. It was my miscalculation of PSRs that made me avoid stocks like MRK (always traded at a PSR of 7 compared to other pharmas at 2-4x) and Microsoft in the late 80's/early 90's. Couldn't justify their PSR's and avoided the stocks as 'too rich'. Big mistake. Seems to me that market share, switching costs, barriers to entry etc. (gorilla attributes) can justify higher PSRs as they have sustainable competitive advantages. The jury is out on AVNX in that regard but, from all I have read and assimilated, it seems they have a strong position in their core competence. Just some thoughts. Best of luck. Regards, Bob