I remember some here were discussing about the next boom era or next killer application. Here s ideas from Briefing.com readers:
The Next Big Thing - Reader's Responses
03-Jul-01 07:20 ET
[BRIEFING.COM - Robert V. Green] Last week, on this page, we wrote about the
disappearance of the great growth markets for technology investors. We also asked
Briefing.com readers for their ideas on where the next killer application would come
from. Here's what you said.
No More Growth Markets
The Stock Brief of June 26, 2001, entitled "Where Have All The Growth Markets Gone?"
listed how growth, in the form of increasing revenues, has disappeared in all of the
following markets:
PC computers
Bandwidth, including fiber networks, and providers of equipment to network
operators
Internet consumer businesses
The last mile solution
Wireless handsets
Telecom competition
For more details, please refer to the Stock Brief in the Briefing.com archives.
For a free temporary account to access the archives on our subscription service, please
send an email to me, Robert V. Green, at rvgreen@briefing.com
Responses
We asked readers for what they think "the next killer application" will be, the one that
will unleash a new wave of growth in technology markets.
Few Stock Briefs evoke the kind of response that this Stock Brief did. It seems that all of
us long for the days when explosive growth was a core belief behind every technology
wave.
The following paragraphs group together some of the more than 300 responses we
received. Comments from your fellow Briefing.com readers are indented below.
Group 1: Unleash the Last Mile
Easily one of the most common ideas is to somehow open up the last mile in the
bandwidth network.
The last mile [is] a growth market if someone can come up with a viable
technology solution to address it. Connectivity is still a problem looking for a
solution rather than a solution looking for a problem.
I suggest we get everyone to lobby congress for last mile incentive legislation.
We have wide highways and no onramps. The economy is depending on a
legislative catalyst. Without it, tech is screwed for the next 5-7 years.
[We need]...fibre speeds on the last mile of copper. (Company is Actelis)
In Spain, however, there doesn't seem to be a problem, as this reader indicates, although
they are still waiting in France:
The big question is how you can get the RBOC's to roll out ADSL in the US,
despite the revenue hit they will take on T1 rentals.....Once our daughters get
ADSL in France (they live a bit away from major towns - and 850 and 1500km
from us - so have to wait a while) we will have video connection via the web,
incl. seeing our future grandchildren live between visits! In the meantime we
watch a lot of opera etc. in webcast mode, and the limit is not the last mile!
Group 2: Biotech
Biotech is also big among the hopes of investors:
...the answer may be related to the gene mapping we've see in the last year or
two.
Biotechs are also expensive but the companies are small and the growth
prospects huge (hgsi, dna, mlnm, medi, etc.).
Biotech stocks, however, are kind of like lottery tickets. Most companies depend upon a
scientific achievement for their business success, followed by clinical trials and FDA
approval. While these growth markets may be right around the corner, the true explosion
hasn't happened yet. But that doesn't mean it won't happen.
Biotech will be the bell weather this decade but once again which company a
real tough guess...
Some think that biotech will help other technology as well:
[There will be] ... insatiable demand for computation power by the biotech
industry.
Group 3: Better PCs
Many people think we just need the next breakthrough in PCs.
[I can't believe no one has built a] .... Neural Network P.C. level machine.
How about AOL Time Warner acquiring Apple and marketing its own internet
PC product?
If someone like IOM, WDC, IBM would come up with a transportable,
rewritable, mass storage device that could keep up, the world would stampede
to their door.
the killer application can be a talking, thinking computer. ...If this thinking,
talking computer will be able to process a command like, "Go to Briefing.com
and find out the next earnings date for Microsoft," everyone would want one.
We like that last idea.
Fuel Cells
Along with biotech, there were many votes for fuel cells.
the next opportunity is in alternative energy, particularly fuel cell technology.
... The time seems right given our energy problems, a crumbling grid, aging
power plants, a strong environmental movement and political and corporate
awareness. [There is a]... "disruptive" nature of these new technologies, which
is a particularly exciting concept for growth investors.
But as with biotechs, it isn't clear who the winner will be.
Fuel Cell. One of these Fuel Cell technology companies will be a winner,
which one I'm not sure...
The Next Internet Application
Many respondents feel that the internet revolution is far from over.
Acrobat 5.0 is a true killer app that places us, as a digital society, at the dawn
of the intelligent document.
Voice over IP voice recognition companies future looks like with the ability to
packet voice over IP ? companies like sonus? spwx and nuan? i believe that
when the tech recovery comes there seems to be a great deal of potential for
that ...after all we all love to talk . cell phones were the perfect modem for talk
anywhere .
how about "peer-to-peer network/computing" as a killer app? Napster, while
not true p2p, was hugely successful. P2P applications like Gnutella could be
just what the tech doctor ordered as a cure for what ails the sector.
video voip. The ability to dial your daughter up on your computer and actually
have a face-to-face real-time video quality conversation. This would truly be a
"reach out and touch someone" type of platform.
The controlling of everyday devices over the internet is going to be a very
large market. Suddenly, with the advent of control software/hardware, a boring
utility company can offer SERVICES.
The Wireless Area
Wireless also appears to be an area where many investors think there is room for new
applications for the existing infrastructure.
G.P.S. (global positioning technology) combined with mobile phones, pagers,
watches, vehicles etc. so that parents can track children, managers can locate
personnel, personal protection when travelling in isolated areas (combined with
a public safety alert feature).
Next will be cell phones as all in one devices. Imagine walking through the
mall, getting a "beep" from the GAP telling you that 33x30 pants (my size) are
1/2 price for the next hour, and they download you the UPC code or electronic
coupon. ... The phone will store your wallet too, where you simply wave them
across the store scanner and pick which account to debit. You have the access
code and it recognizes your voice too (security).
Wireless Corporate Inventory Management
What would make me toss my old phone for the new one? Simple, much
longer battery life. I mean in the weeks of on time, the hassle of always having
to charge the stupid battery drives me crazy.
Technologies Yet To Be Fully Utilized
There were some suggestions based upon better utilization of existing technologies.
Advanced semiconductor materials, esp. high speed new materials like indium
phosphide or silicon carbide.
Acrobat 5.0 is a true killer app that places us, as a digital society, at the dawn
of the intelligent document.
The next big killer application I believe is going to come from the wireless
sector. The sub-sector is telemetry. The remote monitoring of machine to
machine communications.
Where do I think the next big growth market is? Digital consumer electronics,
period.
Denial
There were a lot of people arguing that the PC boom will continue. In light of flat
revenues by every major PC vendor, this can only be viewed as denial. Those in denial,
however, believe that the PC boom is only temporary.
Will my two 30 GB hard disks, my 750 MHz Athlon, my ISDN (ADSL soon,
I hope) line be enough 5 years from now ? Maybe yes, and maybe not. But if I
had to bet some money on this, I would choose the second.
...the death of the PC will prove premature, again. Over the next five to ten
years nearly every major company will replace their computers with those that
sport a flat panel.
Keep Your Sense Of Humor
Finally, it is good to note that we can all keep our sense of humor in market declines. As
one reader notes, the solution to the "last mile" problem is simply to legislate it out of
existence.
Congress, in an amazing display of bipartisan confusion, legislates a
mandatory switch to metric measurement standards. Relieved industry execs
breathe a sigh of relief. "At least we can put that argument behind us now."
...Writers no longer [write about] the "last 1.6 km." problem.... |
