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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19637)	7/3/2001 11:03:09 AM
From: Rashid Garuba	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev.. have to differ on this.. Me thinks markets tired here.. resistance areas close at hand also.. Using this mornings run-up to short.. tenlights.com That red line took some doing to break down through, so I doubt it cab be convincingly broken first time. we've been heading up almost 2 weeks.. risk/reward looks skewed against going long.. At best there is a multi-day struggle here just under 2200.. 1/2 trading day not reliable.. all IMO of course.. Rashid

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19637)	7/3/2001 11:13:04 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev....I am a bit surprised....for I am thinking exactly opposite from you here... Appears to me that we'll go up, and retest that downtrendline (of highs) on Thurs/Fri, and then down we go for a couple weeks (likely hard).....I think until July 20 or so....by then, we could done with what will likely be an a (down) b (up) c (down) pattern, which may get to your 1850 target, but certainly should reach at least 1975...and could even reach 1619, though I doubt it... After that (and this runs counter to most prognosticators- maybe that's why I'm starting to favor it)....am thinking we rage upwards until September.....in e-wave terms, a big "C" up corrective wave (within a larger downtrend....the "C" is within a up 4th corrective wave...with one more big down to go).... Let's face it Zeev...there aren't many (I think) that are going to expect a rally in August THIS year... Mostly, this roadmap is based on stochastics....it appears to me that a good 2 week down (starting late this week) is needed to get the daily/weekly stochastics (both COMPX and SnP, and daily and weeklies) aligned again.......if that occurs, then daily/weekly stochastics (that I follow) will all be deeply oversold, and we'll set up a similiar situation to early April, and we could have a bounce like a mini-April, May... Am thinking it will be the "we've turned the corner" bounce... Then, when earnings warning come again in September, the thought will become again, "will this EVER end?"...also, by September, the consumer may give it up (did you see Payless sales were way down....geez, if Payless can't make money here), and it may become clear that the Fed is ending its cuts...and real depression (and big down) will occur... All IMO....but since I sit on the opposite side of fence then you here, just wanted to let you pick on this-g