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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (8033)	7/3/2001 12:41:13 PM
From: Walt Deemer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

The old odd-lot theory said that the public tends to buy into weakness, only to lose their nerve and sell right at the bottom. Similarly, they tend to sell into strength, only to give up and jump aboard right at the top. Buying when total assets fall after a series of down days and selling after they rise after a series of up days worked well on the Fidelity Select Electronics fund until Fido quit making the numbers public several years ago, but I haven't tried it on the Rydex funds. It may be worth a shot, though. (For instance, there was BIG selling into weakness in the Precious Metals fund yesterday, indicating that a playable rally should be close at hand.) FWIW... -- Walt Deemer

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (8033)	7/3/2001 8:53:01 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 19219

Challo; Your way ahead of me, I just started mine; also it's got gaps in & and I haven't made up my mind exactly how I want to work it. The premise is to use JT's Total Assets divided by that days NAV to look at the amount of Shares, that sort of smooths out Assets moves, due to market maker/manger (mark up/ or mark down tricks) and lets me better see how the bets are being placed. ------------ I can't prove it but have long suspected the more active fund managers have a few tricks too..late day sell offs seem to happen if they see people cashing in, and late day rallies happen on days a lot of money is flowing in. At least with the larger bull type funds. I suspect big inflow days end strong as they buy the market up using some margin , which they come off and increase cash as soon as they see outflow. This turns into a wash for longer term investors, but adds a hidden charge to the short term market timers. Jim