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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MeDroogies who wrote (5551)	7/3/2001 4:37:24 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay was basically out of the market last July. I have an email from him to prove it. The only thing he was holding onto was Phillip Morris and a gold stock, not in huge quantities, either of them. I personally don't see a further crash ahead, but a 20% drop? quite possible. None of us know for sure. I've been lucky enough to get the private opinions of a couple of CEO's in my time. All of their anticipatory opinions were wrong! e.g. "next half is going to be great." Also "this quarter stinks, we're going to be in the red for 2-3 years, maybe we'll never recover." Both of these predictions were absolutely wrong. Jay's direst predictions could come true. We have to take out some insurance, in the form of ballast.

To: MeDroogies who wrote (5551)	7/4/2001 12:21:02 PM
From: Dave	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Typically, just as people are saying that worst is yet to come, the worst has already come. This may be atypical. But so far, it doesn't appear it is. You seem to be implying that most investors think the worst is yet to come. I don't think that is the case. Sure, in SI threads like "The Coming Financial Collapse of 2001," there may be some pessimism. But outside of the occasional bear's den, the Man on the Street is as confident as ever that things are looking up, that the Fed Maestro has his magic finger on the button, that any apparently higher prices are not inflation because they're not "core" prices, that it's prudent to take out huge credit debt and refinance the house at 125% of real-estate-bubble appraisal value. I don't think you can summarize all of this as mass pessimism. Keep your crash helmets fastened! Dave

To: MeDroogies who wrote (5551)	4/25/2002 11:33:29 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello MeDroogies, <<So...we continue to wait. I think the Chicken Little approach is overstated. Typically, just as people are saying that worst is yet to come, the worst has already come. This may be atypical. But so far, it doesn't appear it is>> Could you please provide an update if matters have changed from what you had viewed before? Is AOL’s advertising suffering company specific? To put it in another way, are ad dollars trending up still? Dateline 5:00pm, Thursday April 25th, 2002. Shanghai Grand Hyatt Hotel, 67th floor. The sky scratching Shanghai Grand Hyatt is a hotel situated on top of an office tower, and has its lobby on the 54th floor, a few floors below its swimming pool. If one were to fall, it would be a long way down, giving plenty of time to say, ‘so far so good’, and then ending up an asphalt pizza. Chugs, Jay