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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (38549)7/3/2001 8:35:18 PM
From: Dealer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
From: donald sew Tuesday, Jul 3, 2001 4:43 PM

Stolen from another thread:

JULY 3 INDEX UPDATE
---------------------------
Short-term technical readings:
DOW - upper midrange
SPX - overbought region
OEX - overbought region
NAZ - upper midrange/borderline overbought
NDX - upper midrange
SOX - overbought region
VIX - oversold region(inverse to market)
5 DAY TRIN - approx 5.5
Per my short-term technicals the overall market is in the overbought region. If the market was to move up from here, I would get CLASS 1 sell signals in 2 days, so there is not a whole lot of upside.

Last FRI I got intraday CLASS 2 SELL signals and the intraday highs of last FRI have not yet been broken to the upside, so that is a hint that last FRI may have been a short-term peak. As mentioned recently, if the overall market continues down from here, without giving a CLASS 1 SELL signal, that would be a hint that this selloff could be fairly strong.

Last FRI, the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs was above 200 and yesterday it dropped to 36, and today its at 6. Granted that the 200 figure could have been skewed due to the RUT's rebalancing; regardless it is declining and if it continues to decline into negative territory - thats not a sign of market health.

Over that last 3 days, there have been PLENTY of DOJI's/SPINNING TOPs/SMALL BODIES in the various indices. DOJIs/SPINNING TOPs are signs of indecision and commonly appear at pivot points. The NDX has an IMPERFECT TRI-STAR, which is a moderately reliable bearish reversal signal.

I added another small USPIX(short-NDX)position in my personal mutual fund account where Im now about 90% cash. Only holding onto 1 small position in my trading account, also about 90% cash. Im contemplating long positions in either the OSX(oil drillers) or the XAU(gold miners). For now, Im leaning more towards the oil drillers for a short-term pop.

Have a happy 4th of JULY!!