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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Theophile who wrote (12442)7/3/2001 11:43:09 PM
From: JGoren  Respond to of 197154
 
probably is the first volley. i speculate that LOR is wanting debt guarantee relief and because of that the creditors would not accept conversion to equity. I think it will go into liquidation. The question will be whether the creditors blink; all it takes is one bondholder with enough bonds to file the petition. There still could be a reorg in bankruptcy; ultimately it;s the only hope for the creditors to get paid off.



To: Theophile who wrote (12442)7/4/2001 3:51:25 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 197154
 
<I understood that IJ would only get involved with G* if all the debt were eliminated. If this is true, this announcement may be the signal that no agreement on debt elimination can be reached, and thus G* must take its chances in bankruptcy court. Is it possible we are witnessing the first pause in negotiations, not the final word? >

I think QUALCOMM is applying the blowtorch. Having $$billions in cash and all the technology is quite a negotiating strength. Why give away more than they need to to creditors, service providers etc?

QUALCOMM considered the Blackstone proposals from 3 May. Two months later they seem to have decided that it's not as good a deal as they can get. The opportunity cost of delays is vast, but QUALCOMM can [perhaps] capture a huge chunk extra of the NPV by squeezing the other parties. They had better not do like NextWave, taking it to bankrutpcy hoping for a discount, only to find that other companies see huge value in Globalstar and bid the assets to the sky [which I would enjoy immensely and would not be surprised by].

There are similar constellations still in the design and build stage, which are going ahead. There is a market at the right price and with a debt-free well-managed marketing effort to give customers confidence. Those other satellite system operators have seen Iridium, ICO and Globalstar fail. Even so, they are going ahead. That's because with a well-designed system, priced right, there is a fortune to be made.

Somebody is going to make that fortune from Globalstar. I think Q! has a powerful negotiating position in Globalstar and is squeezing every drop out of the other parties, which is painful around my neck, but it's almost worth it if Vodafone and Loral are also strangled - for destroying a great opportunity by bad marketing, and annoying the shareholders [Loral being the managing partner] by refusing to provide timely information on the minutes and subscriber numbers by way of a graph on the Globalstar website "3 billion minutes served".

I hope they do NOT get iced water in hell to go with their Wheaties [which I hope they have to eat for eternity].

Mqurice



To: Theophile who wrote (12442)7/4/2001 10:54:53 AM
From: JMD  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 197154
 
Martin, re: "Is it possible we are witnessing the first pause in negotiations, not the final word?" I think you can take that to the bank. Normally, bankruptcies of the Globalstar variety are precisely orchestrated events: the new equity folks are standing by while the hatchet falls on the chicken's neck zapping current equity holders (almost always 100%) and dinging current debt holders according to whatever terms the new equity has worked out with them (writing off 70% of the debt and getting warrants or whatever). Of course this event follows months of big time negotiations as the new equity attempts to persuade old debt that they need to take a big hit or face the possibility of losing it all (cause the equity guys won't stick in any dough). Well, sounds like Dr. IJ just told the debt holders to pound sand. His due diligence squad reported that "expenses would be much greater than anticipated blah, blah, blah" and therefore the Q was packing their bags. Well, golly, how do you reduce those nasty expenses? Cut the carrying cost on the debt, get a waiver of interest, a forebearance, whack out the IOU's themselves--whatever the methodology, the end result is the same: more pain for the debt.
This little poker game is far from over. mike doyle
PS--I take your point on the ambiguity of the press release regarding Q getting GSM IPRs but disagree that they would shout that from the rooftops. First, that ain't the Q's style. Second, the GSM IPRs are a wasting asset if ever there was one. They have interim transitional value until the last GSM tower is converted into a laundry line (as somebody here suggested) after which they're worth squat. Hardly worth shouting about. md



To: Theophile who wrote (12442)7/4/2001 12:11:45 PM
From: Pierre  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 197154
 
Is it possible we are witnessing the first pause in negotiations, not the final word?

I think that's spot on. Confirmed further by the fact it wouldn't take a partner 5 weeks to do DD on one of its own enterprises.

My guess runs along slightly different lines than yours, however. I think the sticking point is not the debt, but VOD. All G* can market is minutes. They are finite, but relatively plentiful. As Maurice as pointed out, discounting those minutes to jump start the system seems a logical step. As currently configured, G* is powerless to do that. VOD gets a bigger chunk of those minutes than G* does, and is under no obligation to reduce its take.

Add to that the recent VOD / Verizon squabble regarding technology path, and my guess is VOD is not on Q*'s A list of favorite companies. I have assumed that Q* would end run VOD in a variety of ways. I had hoped it could be pre-packed. Apparently not.

Q*'s statement that expenses were greater than anticipated is difficult for me to swallow on the face of it. Q* knew going in exactly what the expenses were. Converting debt to equity is hardly an expense and my guess is would fly with bond holders. The one unknown expense was VOD - would that blood sucking leech voluntarily relinquish its position at G*'s throat? Apparently not. Q* is now pulling out the "blow torch" (nice phrase, Maurice) to encourage said leech to move on. My fear is debt holders will be burned in the process.

I'd like to think my assessment is based on a hard headed review of the know facts. OTOH, a certain bias against VOD may be influencing me just a tad.

:>)

Pierre