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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (79474)	7/4/2001 1:27:38 PM
From: samim anbarcioglu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Hello BB, I follow this one very closely and trade it very frequently. This is a story stock if there ever was any. In the last 2 months, there was: 1- China's adoption of QCOM technology. Revenues will realize in October (I think it was announced that the spending will be around 10 Billion the first year alone). China has 5 percent cell phone penetration yet nationwide. 2- Nextel is switching from MOT technmology to QCOM technology. Revenues will realize in 2002. 3- Nextwave won its appelate court case and the recent spectrum auction by the FCC is void now. The 17 Billion worth of spectrum in all the metropolitan areas reverted back to Nextwave (in which QCOM is a major partner) which promptly gave a contract to LU to build a nationwide network with QCOM technology. ATT, Voicestream etc. do not have spectrum to grow anymore. Buildout must complete within 2 years or so, per FCC. 4- And of course the NOK news. NOK never was able to make a CDMA phone, so they did not sell many CDMA phones. Now, NOK admitted that, and made a contract to purchase the chips for the handsets from QCOM. Also made a contract to licence QCOM technology to build CDMA infrastructure (towerequipment). They are forcing themselves to be the INTC and MSFT combined of the wireless world. And teh recvent events are all confirming that they are succeeding. The wireless 3G (the fast data and video calls stuff) is agreed by all nations, ITU and carriers to be CDMA (WCDMA, or CDMA2000) and QCOM has the essential patents for CDMA. They defended it in court in Japan and Europe. NOK, was the last company holding out to get licenced for 3G patents. 5- All European operators that together spent 130 Billion to buy spectrum from their governments last year, are under mandate to complete network buildout by 2003. And nobody can make the 3G technology work. Only and only QCOM has working 3G products for sale. They are installed in Japan and Korea and in the US Sprint and Verizon are building out at this moment, to complete Q401 and Q102 respectively. The P/E will show up something like 650, because for the last 2 quarters they have been writing down a bad accounts receivable from Globalstar. That ends this quarter. The real P/E is around 50. I would be so careful about being bearish this stock right now. Back in 1999, on the possibility that some of these recent news might realize, the stock went to 200. Since then, it has been flapping in the wind, waiting for all this news. It is a great trading stock, both on the way up and on the way down. Now IMO another steep rise is ahead. Good Luck.