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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (111207)	7/4/2001 12:07:11 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

valuation models are based on 30 year, or 10 year bond. At least the one ABBIE HOE and Fed uses. Therfore valuations are getting worse because the real return for a 5 year is 5.5%. If it heads closer to 7 then watch out. If cuts are done and they begin to back up that could happen in a heart beat

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (111207)	7/4/2001 12:08:22 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 436258

wasnt that right before stocks plummeted to new lows???

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (111207)	7/4/2001 1:16:06 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<So let's call their bluff>> I'm ready. I'm going poot shopping the rest of this week, with the VIX/VXN down, they're dirt cheap, and the news isn't getting any better any time soon....

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (111207)	7/4/2001 2:45:01 PM
From: Dr. Jeff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<<<In the present case, we had a sell-off on the day of the cut, followed by a 3 DAY HEADFAKE rally into Monday's highs, followed by a near 3% decline on the Nasdaq & nearly 1% on SPX, NYA & INDU in yesterday's session, the first day after the peak.>>>> Huh? The Nasdaq is only down 1.4% lower than Monday's peak. Since you mentioned the Jan. 3rd "surprise" rate cut, I thought I'd ask a kind of market trivia question that several "market knowledgeable" people don't seem to know off hand.............. I'm sure everyone remembers the epic and frenzied broad based rally we had that day, but does anyone remember WHICH STOCK INDEX WAS DOWN 6% ON THE DAY OF THE CUT and off an additional 6% the following day? This same index also fell when the Fed cut another 50 bps on Jan. 30th. This same index is currently lower than at any time during the rate cut regimen and was IMO the most likely impetus for the Jan 3rd "surprise" rate cut. It just so happens it was the best performing index of 2000 (up 46%). Think Fast..... -bg-