To: J_F_Shepard who wrote (157607 ) 7/4/2001 4:50:16 PM From: greenspirit Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769667 Koizumi Strengthens Bush's Hand On Kyoto By Eric Pianin Washington Post Staff Writer Monday, July 2, 2001; Page A02 washingtonpost.com President Bush emerged from a weekend Camp David summit with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in a much stronger position to dictate the pace and direction of future negotiations over an international global warming treaty, some climate change experts and environmental leaders agreed yesterday. Despite vigorous attempts by European leaders to persuade the Japanese to join them and the Russians to implement the protocol opposed by Bush, Koizumi told the president Saturday that he would not sign off on an agreement without U.S. participation. The announcement was a serious blow to European Union leaders, who have spent months trying to woo the Japanese and now have no leverage over Bush going into a new round of negotiations in Bonn this month. Yesterday, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said that the treaty -- which was negotiated and signed in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 and called for mandatory reductions in carbon dioxide emissions -- appeared to be dead and that the administration would continue to push alternative plans for increased research and voluntary programs. "It would seem to be that [the treaty] is not going to be approved," Abraham said on "Fox News Sunday." "The president's approach of pursuing these issues now on a research and technology basis, instead of the completely unfair approach that Kyoto would have forced the United States to follow, is the sensible way. . . . And I'm glad to see Japan joining us in taking that position." Koizumi said after his meeting with Bush that he backed the president's effort "to create means which will be more effective in dealing with the global warming issue" and "presently I do not have the intention of proceeding without the cooperation of the United States." A senior Japanese official, explaining Koizumi's position, said that although the Japanese leader recognizes the depth of Bush's opposition to the treaty, he believed they shared a common view on the seriousness of global warming. "So we would like to consult at a high level" to reach some common ground that would "respect the spirit -- the main fundamental elements -- in the Kyoto protocol," the official said. At a news conference Saturday night in Washington, Koizumi repeated his view that the Kyoto treaty would be "a great benefit to the world," and he said he would continue to try to "find a way out to the last minute." A European diplomat close to the situation said yesterday that although some of "the quotes [by Koizumi] look pretty gloomy, it's not clear precisely what was agreed to in terms of subsequent high-level discussions between the U.S. and Japan," and what they foretell for the fate of the treaty. Experts in the field say that by seemingly winning over Koizumi, Bush has managed to outflank the Europeans, who for months have harshly criticized him for rejecting the treaty without consulting with them. Yet the president is likely to come under mounting international pressure to provide more details of his alternative proposals and to explain how a voluntary approach to combating greenhouse gas emissions would work when voluntary efforts in the past have failed. Rafe Pomerance, a former State Department official for environment and development under President Bill Clinton, said Bush must demonstrate -- beginning with imaginative and effective domestic programs -- that he is serious about bringing down levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The president has promised an aggressive policy of reducing air pollutants, but earlier this year he reneged on a campaign pledge to sharply reduce carbon dioxide emissions -- the chief contributor to global warming. "The crucial question becomes, what does the U.S. and Bush administration propose to do in lieu of the Kyoto protocol?" Pomerance said. "Right now, we have a non-policy." Philip Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust, said: "Bush has not only pulled us out of doing anything about global warming, he has brought to a halt the rest of the world's efforts to do something about it, without a proposal to substitute for it." The 1997 accord committed the United States and 167 other nations to the first binding limits on carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases that scientists say threaten catastrophic changes in the planet's climate. Bush said the treaty -- which was signed by the participating nations but has yet to be ratified by any industrialized country -- would unduly harm the U.S. economy and unfairly exempt developing countries, including India and China. Bush has made research and voluntary compliance the centerpiece of his policy for combating global warming, yet similar approaches taken by the previous two administrations could not halt the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions that directly contribute to the problem. Since the early 1990s, the federal government has invested nearly $2 billion to develop cleaner-burning coal technology, launched dozens of initiatives for reducing air pollution by government buildings and vehicles, and even encouraged the planting of trees and crops to soak up carbon dioxide, according to experts and documents. Yet U.S. carbon emissions -- which scientists say are the main cause of global warming -- grew by 11.2 percent between 1990 and 1998, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Last year, those emissions from burning fossil fuels rose by a robust 2.7 percent, according to a report last week by the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. "Much as some would like to believe otherwise, it will be extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible, to muster the kind of global, sustained effort that is needed without the force of legally binding commitments," said Eileen Claussen, head of the nonprofit Pew Center on Global Climate Change and a former State Department official who specialized in global warming issues. Even outspoken opponents of the Kyoto protocol, including Sens. Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.) and Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), co-authors of a 1997 Senate resolution sharply critical of the measure, have said it would be a mistake to rule out targets and timetables.