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To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (138618)	7/4/2001 6:44:25 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 186894

Re: 3 million Athlon at $125 ASP... That's very unrealistic... Every Duron except the 900 and 950 Mhz model is selling already below your ASP Thanks for your reply. If the Q4 Athlons aren't Palaminos, Athlon ASPs would be lower. The Durons that are being sold into distribution now are primarily 850 and 900 with 800 tapering off as 900 tapers in. Many parts on pricewatch are old stock - like the Pentium IIs and K6-2s that still have many listings. Don't forget that for slow moving parts such as PII's or K6-2s (or Duron 700s), one distributor can have a few dozen left, and 100 retailers can list it on pricewatch as being available. How many buyers will go to the trouble of ordering a part, then installing it in a system, but not spend the additional $23 to go from a 700 to an 850? With shipping, the 700 is about $35 and the 850 is about $58. Athlons 1GHZ and less are Austin product that I expect will be replaced by morgan 1GHZ to 1.1 or 1.2 GHZ for Q4. Chips labeled Athlon will be 1.2GHZ and higher, but if they aren't mostly Palominos, then their ASP will likely be less than $125. The latest tweaks to AMD's roadmap may signal a strategy change: Desktop palomino may need another spin of the silicon to get MHZ up, and the strategy of performance instead of MHZ definitely needs some marketing help. Micron used to call their dual P133 systems 266MHZ systems - you had to dig into the fine print in the ads to discover that the system really was 2 133s. AMD could encourage the marketing of dual 1.2GHZ systems as 2.4GHZ systems and dual 1.4s as 2.8GHZ systems. Since Palomino IPC is so much higher than P4 IPC, especially when P4 uses SDRAM, the benchmark results would line up reasonably well with the 2.4GHZ and 2.8GHZ claims for AthlonMP systems - even on single threaded applications. With the $200 MSI SMP board coming out in August, it could be that Q4 will see a fair number of hobbyist and workstation AthlonMP sales. Which might change things to .8 or 1 million AthlonMP sales (.4 or .5 million PCs) at $135 and 2 million Athlons at $110. For $500, you'll be able to buy a 2.8GHZ motherboard/CPU combo using AMD CPUs vs. a 2.2GHZ P4 combo for $700. I'm supposing here that some potential buyers of 1.5GHZ Athlons would postpone their purchase while they considered SMP (or go to P4), but that others would go ahead and buy 2 1.4GHZ AthlonMPs instead of 1 Athlon - if half go SMP, it raises the total number of units sold. Intel would have a tough time in a dual processor price war. P4 is still a big chip that costs $50 to $75 in labor and materials to FAB and package - with nothing allocated to indirect costs and overhead. If Intel markets dual P4 as a good solution for Q4 (and price it appropriately), they won't be able to meet demand, leaving it to be satisfied by AMD. Some time late next year when Intel has a enough .13 P4 capacity, AMD will have to get to a much faster palomino. Regards, Dan