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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (44103)	7/4/2001 5:00:37 PM
From: straight life	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

"I agree with Cha2 that the internet nexus of data will push wireless use, but right now, I can't see widespread adoption based on these tiny screens on cell phones... The tornado seems to be years away, even for 2.5G..." I think it'll be closer than years away, but I do think China (and maybe unmentioned India, another sleeping giant from the prospective of telecom) will add most of the excitement in the next year, also the unknowns (possible LA TDMA change overs? The fulfillment of the NXTL story? ETC.) As far as internet, I couldn't see it either on that little handheld screen, until I had a thought which fell on me like a revelation: I'm used to surfing the web on my desktop, going from link to link, but the cell phone internet experience will be fundamentally different from mine; people won't so much surf as go to one site and that's it (unless they devise a favorites button that they can update from their desktop); they'll have one task they'll want to accomplish on the run; go to a weather site, a restaurant site, a traffic site (where gps will be an excellent advantage: personalized traffic reports), an email site etc. Unless it's gaming (which could just be one of the new wireless killer apps), which takes more time but it's still one site; so if you need one or two pieces of information at a time, screen size shouldn't matter overmuch. I don't know how imode subscribers experience the net; perhaps my revelation is just so much hot air (wouldn't be the first time...) so take this FWIW.

To: Apollo who wrote (44103)	7/4/2001 5:46:32 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Apollo: You have done a first class job in listing milestones for Qualcomm over the last 18 months. As for the future, the question is whether the improvements in the Q's position in the real world over the next 18 months will be reflected in its stock price directly, with a lag, in advance, or not at all. And no one in his right mind would claim to know. My personal approach has evolved into concentrating on fundamentals, especially since once upon a time I tried timing, trading, using my knowledge of how the economy moves (which is not too shabby BTW), etc. in trying to pick entry and exit points and all that good stuff. Decided I was not smart enough for that stuff. So I just tried to figure out where (which technologies) seemed to be coming on strong and pick leaders in them. Qualcomm is the clearest case I have ever found. There is no, repeat no, reason I can see why the Q's fundamentals will not continue to improve over time. Again, what that means re: stock price, I don't have a clue. But in my long life I learned that it is better to go with the trend. The trend is with Qualcomm. Best. Cha2

To: Apollo who wrote (44103)	7/4/2001 10:43:52 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

just because recovery is slow doesn't mean the patient won't get better eventually. straight life once offered some good advice that's relevant to your case, I think: Message 14438713 tekboy/Ares@taketwoyearsandcallmeinthemorning.com

To: Apollo who wrote (44103)	7/4/2001 11:32:56 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Apollo, When will the tornado(es) take place? To help with that, I think Moore's approach is better and more informative than any approach I've ever seen. He uses four questions beginning at the bottom of page 154 of the revised manual. --Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (44103)	7/5/2001 11:32:44 AM
From: StockHawk	Respond to of 54805

The tornado seems to be years away, even for 2.5G. This will take great patience on my part. Acceleration the the time of a tornado may occur with new killer apps, besides email, but I don't see this at this point. Speech recognition could have been a killer app, but that industry seems to be in disarray, from what I can tell. I agree with you about speech recognition. It looked so close a couple of years ago, and the fact that it has not progressed much shows how difficult to predict trends and adoption rates and tornados. Some things catch on and others never do. I've owned a cell phone for eight years or so and I've never been tempted by the idea of surfing the web or even checking emails with a phone. The small screen, the often bad connections etc. However, I saw something the other day that caught my interest. It's a relatively new CDMA device, the Kyocera Smartphone QCP 6035. The idea is to combine a cell phone and a PDA in one device. The screen on this unit is about twice the size of a normal cell phone screen but is smaller than most PDA screens, however it allows for integration of functions such as an address book/dialer, and it provides for email, WAP browsing and HTML browsing. Other companies are coming out with similar devices and it would seem that many people who now carry both a cell phone and a PDA would love to be able to combine the two if the solution was workable and reasonably priced. It's an area to keep an eye on. And... I think it's a credit to this thread that we have been able to discern, and keep focused on, the key aspects of QCOM despite the occasional FUD attacks, and that we have been able to see the lack of substance in companies like Metricom despite the hype sometimes presented. StockHawk

To: Apollo who wrote (44103)	7/5/2001 2:16:19 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Not bad...been a long time since you've had a Cool Post, eh Doc? :0) One of three from the nominating thread today, I note... tekboy/Ares@nowifonlyour*&^%$!stockswouldoaswell.com

To: Apollo who wrote (44103)	11/21/2001 12:29:32 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Apollo, re: The Wireless Data Tornado(es) - When, What, and Who Back on the 4th of July you commented on "what looks to be a drawn out timeframe for 2.5G and 3G adoption" and you asked ... >> Opinions of the Thread??? 1. When will the tornado(es) take place? 2. What are some of the other hidden software/hardware initiatives that will emerge, that I have neglected to mention, and on which we should keep our eye focused? << We all know that there is no tornado yet. But ... We just witnessed the most wireless oriented COMDEX ever. From Gates to Chambers to Ollila, we heard from the podium primarily about the wireless future and the convergence of the desktop with mobile and fixed wireless data or what our friend Cha2 calls the "Wireless Internet Nexus" (he can correct me if I didn't get that appellation quite right). [I really have a hard time justifying Qualcomm's lack of presence at COMDEX or total absence fro CEBIT earlier this year - they should be, IMO, positioning themselves more publicly at key (wireless) IT events, and not just at the technology conferences sponsored by the financial houses that they do a great job with.] In addition Nokia followed up COMDEX with a knockout "Mobile Internet Conference" in Barcelona, Spain, and released more products, and more diversified products (all wireless data oriented), at one time, then they have since they reinvented themselves in 1992, and more than any other company associated with wireless that I can think of ever doing. Next week Nokia will host the financial analysts in NYC for their annual "Capital Market Days" extravaganza, and open the kimono even further. This is "Rolling Thunder" at its finest, and probably will help to dispel the notion held by some that their 20,000 employees engaged in R&D, simply design faceplate covers for mobile phones. I am really starting to get excited about the pending tornado(es), I am sensing that we perhaps should be looking for more than one tornado - actually tornados in different overlapping domains. Certainly our favorite gorillas and kings will play in the game(s), but potentially there will be others and these "candidates" are, IMO the critters we should be looking for. We can hold Qualcomm safely because it is an enabling technology gorilla in its own domain, will receive royalty revenue outside of that domain, and potentially could play player in other games in the wireless data future. I personally hold Nokia (and watch it closely) because it is a profitable clear cut king in the largest consumer electronics market in the world (wireless or non-wireless), both in terms of units sold and total value. I look at Qualcomm and Nokia along with Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco, as a "basket" for the coming tornado(s) that each will play a role in. I shouldn't neglect Siebel either because their is a wireless CRM game afoot as well. ... but I already hold all those previously mentioned. I was sorely tempted to add Ericsson to my "basket" a month ago when Ericsson dipped below 4 for the first time in years and clearly offered an entry point par excellence. Ericsson is clearly the best infra play on the street, and has close to 2x market share across technologies. Several factors deterred me. In the wireless data game that is about to unfold, Ericsson is shaping up to be a Prince. They have negligible market share in cdmaOne/cdma2000 and while they have contracts approximating 40% market share in 3GSM, Nokia is nipping at their heels with 35%, and in addition the "lumpy" infrastructure market is terribly depressed. The Financial Times had an interesting article on this subject titled "Pick Up Phones When Networks Down", quoting Lehman Brothers as saying: Ericsson and Nokia have around 40 percent and 35 percent market share in 3G contracts respectively. But the Swedish company is exposed to all other market technologies compared to Nokia's focus on GSM/UMTS, an addressable market set to grow from 62 percent to 80 percent in the next 5 years or so. Overall market growth will be slower. I also missed an opportunity to add Openwave recently at a very attractive entry point when they missed earnings. I placed a GTC limit buy but OPWV scooted quickly to the upside with the general market rally. This is probably just as well, since I really haven't done adequate DD on OpenWave, and Nokia (number two to OPWV in WAP servers, and number two to them in microbrowsers) has just released a Java Delivery Server, and is offering a WAP 2 browser module as part of it 60 series platform, as well as collaborating with AOL Time Warner (remember Netscape) on a browser. I'm not sure that AOL Time Warner isn't a play in itself. Fuel cells have been discussed here for the last week and that's definitely an arena to watch and there is another arena shaping up in smart antennas, with ArrayComm looking like an early leader. On the messaging platform side we have traditional players like CMG, Comverse, and Logica (with Nokia playing in that game as well). This morning we heard of another company in this space (MessageVine) that was just BREW certified by Qualcomm and AWS just contracted with a company called InphoMatch, a wireless messaging application provider I had never heard of that provides cross-carrier, cross-technology platform messaging: Message 16682652 In Fixed wireless (WLAN) Cisco is a player as well as 3COM, but there is another player (Intersil) I haven't really << hidden software/hardware initiatives that will emerge >> At least a dozen key initiatives have formed this year and those of course are getting rolled up into this OMAI Glaobal Power Play (Open Standards v. Proprietary Standards). I mean to back track on the individual initiatives and sort out the players. Meantime at this juncture we should probably segmenting the big wide converging wired wireless world down into smaller chunks. The breezes are blowing. Keep an eye peeled (all). Over 1 Billion wireless data messages a day are being transmitted (all chunks of text) and shortly they will be multimedia. << best to all on the 4th >> Best to all on Thanksgiving, - Eric -