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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Line Investment Survey -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnQInvestor who wrote (117)	7/5/2001 7:48:59 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 219

Hi JQI, For all the years that I've followed Value Line it's been my impression that their Timeliness ranking arrived a bit late to the party. As you mention, V/L is a great source of information, but the opinion portions are just that - opinion. They try hard to differentiate themselves from the brokerage and investment banker dominated opinions, but seem to fall into the same "group-think" of analysts, brokerages, institutions and mutual funds when it comes to such areas. This is all part of the reason I started a listing of stocks that were on V/L's "Highest Growth Stocks" list (page 39 of the paper edition's index) and also ranked Timeliness #5 - Lowest. It would appear that by watching for this somewhat rare occurrence one could avoid much of the downside risk. It also assumes that the lowering to #5 is also a bit late as a signal. This method hasn't defined the "ultimate bottom" but has been close enough that the YTD performance of this list is still in positive territory. The list is in Portfolio format here on SI with an imaginary $10,000 invested in each stock as of the date it showed up as a #5. I used the closing price of that week's Friday as the V/L price is always a bit behind reality as well. Here's the address for the thread and portfolio if you're interested: Subject 51041 I've also set up an imaginary portfolio of the same stocks, again with $10,000 committed, but with each one containing an average of about 40% cash reserve and 60% invested. This group is then managed with a contrary program called AIM. There's a link to that portfolio from the SI page. Please let me know what you think of this rather severe contrary method. Best regards, Tom