Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (5589)	7/5/2001 12:36:22 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Money is continuing to be wasted on a grand scale globally, and count on the long term interest rate to hold steady, and then go up, as capital is being ill treated. This prediction is independent of the discussion of inflation/deflation.> I agree with this. For a few years I've thought the long-term trend in interest rates will be up as people gradually realize that money should be treated as a means of exchange rather than a store of value, which will increasingly reside in financial institutions in cyberspace with people owing shares as their store of value against which they will conduct their transactions. Lending will dwindle in importance though it will not go away. Though the fiat moneys will go away a lot as they are abandoned for real cyberspace moneys based on real, bottom-line productive assets. My guess is that interest rates will [over 10 years or so] trend up towards 10%, but with episodes of 'fight that recession by cutting rates' as we are having now. I choose 10% because I guess that the technology effect of ever increasing productivity will continue at about 8% and the 2% is a bit of a premium to console the frustrated lenders who earn not much on their savings, have that taxed and then they watch the continually rising stock market [as for the last 100 years, the odd glitch such as 1929 to 1945 notwithstanding]. I agree, no point studying and buying an individual company if the tide's going out in the equity ocean, unless that company has some special reasons attached and they'd have to be quite special. Mqurice