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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave who wrote (5601)	7/5/2001 10:28:04 AM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 74559

I find that interesting. My house on the East Coast has taken 7 years to double, in a HIGHLY desirable neighborhood. The 2 towns around me are desirable as well, but haven't increased nearly as much and are static right now. Nobody out here could get that much out of a mortgage refinancing, let alone an equity loan. Even with a refinancing, I only have as much out as I paid for it 7 years ago. It would take quite a readjustment to make me feel bad at all.... I almost moved to the DC area last year, and could've gotten much more house for the money I'd have made selling my house here. However, I didn't trust the market there, which was rocketing upward. It has slowed dramatically since November, and from what I've heard, price in VA are back where they were when I was visiting in August 2000, but are still moving. I own a rental property in the NYC area, too. Same situation with that...I've owned it for 10 years, and it's slightly more than doubled in that period. As good as the real estate market is or was in other places during the boom...it still has never really bubbled out here from anything I've experienced. The rental market is astounding, however. I could charge (easily) $500 to a thousand more for my apartment. But I like my tenant, he's made no trouble for me (unlike others I've had) and I don't see any reason to gouge. All things considered, I'm ahead of the game there...even if the rental market collapses, I'll be able to make money on it.

To: Dave who wrote (5601)	7/5/2001 10:38:33 AM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 74559

Just an FYI about my business: "In the short term, Kagan Media Money does not project a recovery of the ad market until 2002--and as a result, online properties relying on marketing dollars for their bread and butter will likely continue to struggle. In 2000, Kagan Media Money had online gross ad billings totaled $8.5 billion, a whopping 80% increase on 1999's $4.2 billion. For full-year 2001, Kagan expect revenue to fall at least 18% to about $6.9 billion. Even by 2002, revenue from online ads may not rebound to 2000 totals. Kagan projects 2002 ad revenue could hit $7.9 billion --still 7% less than for 2000. " Interestingly, Kagan is only counting revenue from advertising firms. Most online revenues come direct from the client, and not through the agency, so while revenues are down, they are not as low as Kagan's indicate. Kagan also estimates next year (again, agencies rarely know what they will have, and much money still comes from the clients directly anyway) will be up close to 10%. Since clients will spend more if they don't pay agency fees, this estimate can be considered low.