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To: craig crawford who wrote (127762)	7/5/2001 1:47:20 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Craig, do you remember Steve Harmon? He used to be a legend on this thread. Kind of like Blodget, Harmond and Meeker. >Harmon also writes a column for the stocks Web site Siliconinvestor.com. businessweek.com

To: craig crawford who wrote (127762)	7/5/2001 2:36:34 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I'm not the only one who uses the word 'idiot'! <vgb> >I wonder how many of you longs that called me a fool when I was shorting this at 96 still think I'm an idiot? Message 16032262

To: craig crawford who wrote (127762)	7/5/2001 4:35:40 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

yeah even the folks who drive ocean liner SUVs claim to be enviromentalists, as do those who pass me on the highway at 85 mph, but hey who can blame them for wanting in to the club!

To: craig crawford who wrote (127762)	7/5/2001 5:18:29 PM
From: Randy Ellingson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

i dunno, can you keep the questions simple? this is all too much for my brain early in the morning after a long 4th! :-) Sounds like a good 4th to me! One thing -- the supply and demand issue. My understanding says that the deman of solar (PV, I mean) cells, panels (the cells assembled), and modules (the panels assembled and framed, ready for mounting) are indeed in short supply. I.e., distributors are ordering more parts than can be produced at the industry's current capacity. AstroPower alone says they can fill just 70% if their orders at present, and that it will take them two years to catch up. As for prices, they haven't been falling of late. The supply-demand equation is, as you said, determined much more on the desire level than a must-have level. I know fair bit about APWR (I do own them), and find the industry and this company compelling. Ten year industry growth rate (sales in MW) of 40%, with the grid-connected market growing at 47% -- the grid-connected portion is close to surpassing, or has surpassed, the off-grid system sales. So now the sales growth may very well head above 40%. I'm no econ expert, so anyone feel free to fill in the blanks here... APWR is IMO very much in a long term pattern of increasing sales (in both MW and $) and continued capital expenses to grow capacity with demand. Thus, while earnings may very well be plowed back into expansion, sales are IMO likely to continue to increase at a healthy clip for many (ten, twenty?) years to come. Margins are everything, and in this industry there's some protection since the production technology so far has proven difficult (I know of no company that has excess capacity today). APWR has within the past year projected a gross margin increase from 30% (or low thirties?) to 38%. Another point of interest is that they compete with giants. BP has BP Solarex, and Siemens also produces in volumes above APWR's. So if they decided to blow away APWR, why wouldn't they? My only thought here is that APWR may very well have a valuable distribution network, and may also lead in some areas of integration -- i.e., they simplify system design and installation through thoughtful product design. So, commodity-bound, or high-tech product? How can one tell by watching things like margins? What else should we watch for?