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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (46174)	7/5/2001 5:57:34 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Cirrus, Re: I hope people seriously analyze their view of AMD now. Some people had extremely positive views until an hour ago. But I bet it still won't change some peoples' view of AMD. I know because three years ago I was in the same position. Now, there is NO Athlon to save AMD and the stock community has lost faith in the company again. I agree completely. And I remember a good post from you on this topic a few weeks back. Too bad that many investors ignored it. With AMD falling back badly on the clock-speed curve and Palomino being delayed again and again (while even scaling worse than Thunderbird), I expect AMD to post losses soon (unless the whole industry recovers by a miracle). I think next week's CC will be critical. If there is any word on further delays or new speed-grades being pushed back, I'll short AMD on any strength. It looks like that the street is always behind on AMD. When Athlon was released almost no-one realized that it would change everything. Now, with Athlon at the end of its life cycle, most analysts are extremely bullish for AMD and expect them to do better than Intel. They seem to ignore those critical details we discuss here (roadmap delays, clock-speed scaling, IPC vs. MHz advantage etc). It's probably a good advice to exactly do the opposite what they believe. AMD will probably a good investment again if either the industry recovers quickly (doubtful) or when Hammer is released. But that won't happen before late '02. And with the current management I even doubt this date. Andreas

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (46174)	7/5/2001 5:59:16 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<Well, I doubt many people even expected it to be THIS bad.> I didn't! I was counting on the units to be decent and results to come in at the low-end of expectations given the ASP collapse and given there was no preannouncement by the end of the quarter. This announcement tells me: a) ASP are probably in the $70s instead of $80s like I estimated and/or flash tanked quite a bit b) Jerry & Co can always reach new lows when you think they can't go any lower. The only good news here is unit shipments - Duron may be finally ramping up in sales. Jerry is once again proving that: good technology team + incompetent management = mediocre company How sh*tty can the management be if they fail to not preannounce a 17% decline in sales until this late when the guidance was "from flat to possibly down 10%"?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (46174)	7/5/2001 6:13:16 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Cirruslvr: "I hope people seriously analyze their view of AMD now. Some people had extremely positive views until an hour ago. But I bet it still won't change some peoples' view of AMD. I know because three years ago I was in the same position. Now, there is NO Athlon to save AMD and the stock community has lost faith in the company again. I'm glad I out of the sinusoidal (TM PREngel) pattern. Maybe others will make the same realization also." I sure got blind-sided by the news today...Too early to tell though whether AMD's financial performance vis a vis its competitors has diminished...Relative performance tells the management tale and as yet, we have no "outside" benchmarks by which to guage AMD's q2 results...In absolute terms, I certainly don't like AMD's q2 earnings, but perhaps, when the dust settles, they'll look good ina relative sense...Not a good sign for the general market indices if that is the case, though! Looks like AMD may just have ushered in a gloomy summer for the markets in general!

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (46174)	7/5/2001 7:32:40 PM
From: eplace	Respond to of 275872

Cirruslvr...At least I'm not going down down the rollercoaster this time. Cirrus, I had the good fortune of selling covered calls this afternoon about an hour before the close. I sold July 25 calls on all my shares. Considering that AMD will probably be very weak tomorrow, it just means that I didn't lose the portion between 25-29. There was a big temptation to sell the stock at that price instead. Wish I had now. I was not intending to ride the rollercoaster up and down this time, but was trying to squeeze a little too much out till earnings. Looks like I'll be ok since I bought most of my stock under 10. Regards Ed P.