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To: craig crawford who wrote (111321)	7/6/2001 7:16:26 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

At last! A worthy adversary! Strong economy and POG Recent history shows a bear market for Gold in strengthening economy, and a bull market for gold in weakening economy (yes I know, those were inflationary times, but the inflationary part came in the later stages of Gold's bull market). >> also the '99 low has not held not in real dollar terms You're right. And that what makes it such a lovely giant ending diagonal pattern, that was completed at the REAL low in April. Look at a weekly OHLC chart of the last 5 years. On a nominal scale it's a failed 5, and on real scale it's a marginally lower perfect closure. >>hold on there just a second. who said the dollar was going to fall? what happens to your scenario if the dollar only gets stronger? If the Dollar only gets stronger then it will surely be stronger against Gold as well. $200/oz is then a possibility. Dollar index jumped to a new high yesterday but Gold still hasn't visited new lows, showing a little strength against the Euro, for example. BTW, if you weigh Gold against a basket of world currencies instead of just the Dollar, you'll find we're quite a way from the bottom. ATG

To: craig crawford who wrote (111321)	7/13/2001 4:18:40 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Craig, Some fact on Gold, to feed the debate: Total known global production of gold in history = 125,000 tonnes. Total global holdings of gold by central banks = 30,000 tonnes. At current prices those 30,000 tonnes are worth $250 Billion . Global gold production is 2,500 tonnes per annum and consumption is 3,300 tonnes. Disinvestment, lending and recycling of scrap gold bridges the gap. Although South Africa still is the global leader in gold production, it also has the highest average production costs in the world. Coupled with labour problems, lowering grades as well as several mines reaching the end of their lives, it is not anticipated that South African production will increase in the future. In the '70 RSA produced over 1000 tonnes/year of the Global 1500 tonnes/year global production. South Africa’s gold production has been declining steadily, and in 2000 production was 423 tonnes (18% of global production) ATG