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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (79523)	7/5/2001 9:05:39 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Zeev, Couldn't have said it better. As soon as one becomes "certain" about the future direction of the market, that is when one is looking for trouble...ggg The market is going down, until it goes up. LOL If you are right, and the market goes down hard, I think that would be healthy as that will set up the right conditions for a strong up move. The action from 4/4 to 5/21 was superb. It's been rather boring since then.... Best, Eichler

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (79523)	7/5/2001 9:21:46 PM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Zeev, im starting to get dizzy with this whipsawing! My only regret is they didnt get CCMP back into the mid/upper 60s for me.. given that earnings are just around the corner, ill probably have to settle for starting a new short position here about 55 is possible.. One thing which really has me a bit upset is when I see companies like Intel painting one picture, and being in the industry I see something entirely different.. same thing with AMD- look at the news over the last few weeks.. It really made the biggest bear start to doubt his/her convictions.. In my mind, aside from AMDs warning being alot worse then I expected- I could make the arguement that this is like the finaly cycle of the wash, and in fact this is what bears have been pricing in over the last few months with failure to break that magic 2250/2300.. Im not so eager to run out and short anything at this point.. although if I was playing longer term (6-12 months) I would hit the semis with everything since I think a recovery is hog wash : ( Ill probably add to my MU short tomorrow and change that strategy a bit since it didnt get to my target of the mid 40s, but IRF is goign to be a tough call.. Do I average down near the low 30s with a tight stop? or just get out as it fights to hold tomorrow? Some shorts are sitting on fat profits here so a DCB has to arrive eventually.. no ? ...still cant believe I covered my semis last week.. coulda should woulda.. ah well !

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (79523)	7/5/2001 9:26:34 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I have donned back my bear suit, don't assume that it will be an "easy trip" down, the market will have a bunch of surprises, Yes, the way this retrenchment today (which was "suposed" to be a minor pull back, not to breach 2100) failed (well the fat lady still has to sing the 2078 tune, but i think it is given that sound will be proclaimed tomorrow), indicates that we may go hard down. Yet, this market has surprises all the time. Two weeks ago it was on its way to 1850, and at 1973, it suddenly (and quite meekly) turned. That market will take each one of us, and prove us to be "fools". I feel foolish already.<g> This market is just proving to be too unpredictable. Don't think the reasons that existed in late March are there anymore for a drop into the 1800s. Just as we saw no follow through to the upside on the Nasdaq, we will probably experience the same on the downside. For that reason, I am basically changing my outlook for simply a trading range 2000 and 2300 unless one of the factors below comes into play. I mentioned that I will be watching Intel tomorrow. There are reasons to buy on the AMD warning (imho) and if the afterhours losses are erased and it goes up, I am going back to my prediction for Nasdaq 2400 by mid to late July. If Intel does poorly, I might be joining the camp that is calling for a drop below 2000. Anything in between and I would probably stick to the trading range of 2000 to 2300. One point to remember is that we are entering earnings season and are exiting warnings. That could be a factor in the coming 2 to 3 weeks. Another factor is that the hope of summer rally as talked about on CNN and CNBC today seems to be fading. Now, I wonder if that is a contrarian indicator.