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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (5644)	7/6/2001 9:16:30 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi CB, I believe hurricanes and typhoons are the same type of meteorological phenomenon, except the former is the name used in the US, Caribbean and latter in Asia. Typhoon is a Fujian (province opposite Taiwan) term. We do not have oak trees, but plenty of coconut trees and such falling on cars. My in-laws harvested some bananas and papayas from their garden yesterday to save the fruits from flying off. Other kinds of damages occurring in the past: mudslides pushing over high rise buildings (late 60s or early 70s), yachts blown on land, floods etc. Sometimes Hong Kong airplanes are flown to other airports as a precaution. Some less well put together buildings get their windows blown out by the pressure differential, and I was not kidding about street signs cutting off people’s head, or potted plants off balconies doing similar damage. <<how beautiful the weather is the next day>> I enjoy looking at the ocean during a storm. Nature is truly wonderful. Our 'next days' would simply be rain and still more rain. On FNM, I understood that they play around with derivative instruments and they are under-insured. I will look deeper into FNM. Also, I suppose, should the US real estate market cool off drastically, or default rates rise alarmingly, their stock price can drop by, say, 30-50%. That potential is worth investigating. If I conclude anything, will post here. Any help from anyone on the thread is most welcome. Chugs, Jay

To: Ilaine who wrote (5644)	7/6/2001 12:06:25 PM
From: jim black	Respond to of 74559

Hi, CB. Actually you might want to look more closely at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if you are considering them as investments. I could be more specific were I interested myself ( I personally would not touch them). I read just a few days ago on a Schwab site that GNMA funds are fully insured by US government and am assured of same by my CPA. The major risk in GNMA funds is early repayment, average is ~9 years...HOWEVER, it was made very clear to me that FNM and Freddie are not insured as stock investments...that was my understanding. Of course I do not immediately assume you are interested in investing in these instruments since I note you have recently stated you are in cash. The issue that bothers me and I am sure, implicitly, many others especially on this thread, is the implication of necessity? of US having to perform massive bailouts. US could only come up with massive payments on grand scale with flood of money (inflation,AGAIN!) of Noachian scale. Certainly agree with your observations of benefits of home ownership. My own recent experience with many friends and acquantances in Seattle area from which I am a recent refugee, is that many youngish folks have sought the benefits of home ownership but are making to my mind the disastrous gamble of borrowing to limits of bank allowances, far too liberal in my view, so that they have no! leeway to allow for downturns. For example a recently elected Senator, Maria Cantwell, financed her won campaign and had to borrow to pay her loans. She was a software multimillionaire whose company hit bottom (Thump!!) I watch the morning bubblevision coverage this am laughing with little mirth at the anuslysts who now look for a 25-50! basis point cut later in summer, more pushing on a string, many once and again referring to US consumer as savior of the day. (Here I go with another plug, Mike Doyle!) William Greider only a few years back made this observation with uncanny prescience...the US consumer, the US, is the "consumer of last resort"...and when they stop consuming, then the stage is set for a real depression...it is a scary and well argued scenario in "One World, Ready or Not." As I look at the indices of NAZ and DOW I cannot escape the impression that the good days of bubblemania lasted long enough for most folks in this country to get just hooked enough to remain in denial. I have always subscribed to the notion of buying some gold or stocks and hoping they go down, ie everything else will go up. The more I watch Greenspan flapping around like a fish out of water the sadder I feel for people who remain long this market. I know that does not include you but it does some who lurk and occasionally post here. Greenspam's wife is named Andrea (Mitchell, a reporter!). Perhaps we should name the coming storm after her, in his honor. It is likely to do far more damage than Jay's little windstorm. Jim Black

To: Ilaine who wrote (5644)	7/6/2001 10:46:23 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

<I think the US has the highest rate of homeownership in the world, doesn't it? > I think NZ is higher. It's a national obsession. A tax-advantaged way of protecting capital against inflation and leveraging a bit of equity into a mortgagee rip-off [as inflation destroys the lender's money over 20 years - though these days, interest rates consistently exceed inflation so it's not such a problem for the lenders]. In some cities, there has also been a scarcity-value increase as population density has increased and demand for inner-city land grew. Mq