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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Tara who wrote (13287)	7/6/2001 11:23:07 AM
From: TraderAlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

Jon, You stated it well. And this is really about TA and cycle behavior. Many folks were caught on the wrong side of the market in the mid 90s when we didn't have a recession although the cycle time was reached. It later became apparent that a larger cycle with a different period length was assuming control. Thats certainly possible on the flip side that we are now in. A trend relativity error just like seeing a small downtrend of a bigger move on a chart and thinking the bottom is in just because it bounces. Alan

To: Jon Tara who wrote (13287)	7/6/2001 3:34:25 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

Yep, the time to cash out was last year (housing for sure). I've got a friend who sold a property last year in Silly Valley that she paid I think <200k for for 700k+. Wonder what it would go for now and how long it would take to sell. Speaking of San Diego, when I lived there in the late 1980s, we lived in an 1100 square foot house in Point Loma which sold for $384k in early 1989. Astounding. Wonder what it would go for today. But the flip side is, that person held onto many multi thousands of a certain Nasdaq 100 stock which is now at multi year lows. Oops.

To: Jon Tara who wrote (13287)	7/6/2001 6:21:43 PM
From: ig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

"A personal residence has to be held for 2 years in order to avoid capital gains tax on sale [...] What can we expect to START happening about two years after the peak of the stock-market bubble?" Say, that is a heck of an interesting observation. Hmmmm..... Ok, so newly-rich tech investors who bought their new homes near the top, say, around January 2000, give or take a few months, will be able to avoid capital gains if they wait until after January 2000 to sell. Question: Why would they want to sell for less than they paid? I am pretty familiar with Silicon Valley real estate. Sellers are getting no action at all, even with prices discounted 30- and 40-percent off last summer's prices. Are these ex nouveau riche going to want to sell at a loss, or are they going to want to wait until the real estate market "recovers"? Hard to say, seems to me.... ig