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To: Milan Shah who wrote (46342)	7/6/2001 2:39:46 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Respond to of 275872

Milan, From experience of past shortages as well as gluts they both end abruptly since a few % shortage or excess has a highly leveraged effect. This is also exacerbated by the JIT inventory system. I expect the PC parts glut to end anytime now and the router parts glut as well as thge flash glut to last for some months. There are many common parts, such as bypass caps that were in short supply in the heyday and thay will stay as a glut, but in the past these parts were not critical, it was the active parts that made the shortage have teeth. This past shortage was both passives well as actives and everyone ramped up volume and everyone double ordered. The JIT system means that people will suddenly wake up short of parts, esp in the PC area and I expect to see the summer build cycle for the fall sales to clean up all the loose parts very soon. Bill