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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44176)	7/6/2001 2:30:51 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

--Mike, << comments deserve a lot of attention and I agree with the spirit of all of them if not always the particulars ... you're mentioning at the outset that we should choose our method of forecasting the wireless data tornado while in the same sentence you're proclaiming that the data tornado is already upon us. Please clarify.>> Thanks for posting back and calling my attention to a (Big) Whoops. I said: "the wireless data tornado (not the wireless multimedia data tornado), is at hand". I meant to say the wireless data tornado (not the wireless multimedia data tornado), is NEARLY at hand. ... and we should be on close watch, as a result. << I'm leaning more toward thinking SMS and i-mode are symptoms of chasm crossings more than tornados. >> I'll buy that, without any real exception, and go one step further and say that without 1xRTT or GPRS wireless data would remain stuck at the end of the chasm or in the bowling alley. In the circuit-switched world of GSM (or 'i-mode') there has in fact been real hypergrowth in point to point messaging, and resulting carrier revenue, and I take that (have taken that) as a wireless data tornado signal rather than the tornado we are looking for itself. You might recall perhaps 6 months back when I started calling attention to the SMS numbers here, that is pretty much how I presented it. Text only messages of 160 characters (or less) are admittedly rather mundane, as it relates to the wireless data tornado we are looking for, even if you throw in some limited graphics and audio files. Enhanced point to point messaging, however, will be an important part of the 2.5G data tornado, as will wireless internet access. There will be some crude AOD/VOD. and videoconferencing, but those really are full scale 3G applications, and hopefully 2.5G will whet consumers appetite for the real thing. Stepping outside the Qualcomm box for a moment we have frequently discussed Openwave as an enabler of not only point to point messaging, but also WAP enabled web access and BREW enabled application implementation. I'm a few posts behind, but StockHawk's comments about the Kyocera 6035 WID (SmartPhone) - as much as I enjoy and derive utility from mine - remind me that we remain circuit-switched for data and voice, and despite the fact that this is (finally) a reasonably useable data as well as voice device - The carriers, and thge vendors have a ways to go before we as users, or subscribers, really start craving higher bandwidth. The transition from circuit-switched data to packet-switched introduces a whole set of complexities that GPRS or 1xRTT do not of their own solve, or stated differently, retard the adoption of their use (for data) until they are overcome. Recently I clipped a long article about the obstacles that GPRS needs to overcome. Some of the issues addressed in the article are specific to GPRS, but many are common to 1xRTT, even though 1xRTT is never mentioned: Part 1: Message 15925147 Part 2: Message 15925200 The good news is that the issues are recognized, being dealt with, and barriers to packet wireless data being removed. There is some real meat in this article, and perhaos the name of a potential Gorilla or King or two (the presenters). Companies that offer solutions for GPRS also solve problems for 1xRTT. Best, - Eric -