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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Second_Titan who wrote (5790)	7/6/2001 3:00:00 PM
From: Frank	Respond to of 23153

Too much agreement that NG will soon be given away on cereal boxes. Some great long term buys may be emerging from the carnage--Frank

To: Second_Titan who wrote (5790)	7/6/2001 3:34:07 PM
From: JungleInvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Re: <<.....but in the short run it sure looks like we will have more NG supply than demand. >> Not so sure about that, Que. Low price means at least some reversion of fuel switching that took place, rigs switching from gas to oil drilling (9 in last two weeks) and no longer economical to import LNG. One biggie for me is the unprecedented high balancing item related to AGA storage injection figures. 2.19 BCFD (or 15 BCF per week) above highest ever, probably means substantially bigger than usual negative balancing item for second half of year - i.e., much lower than average injection rates in summer and higher than normal withdrawal in winter. New gas-fired power plants will have big impact and weather is still unknown (and largest impact) factor. The NG pricing situation can change in a heartbeat. Interesting after large injection number (105) this week, NG price is going up. Those buying NG and driving up price must believe that the bottom is not going to fall out of market. For me, $2/mmbtu gas is an extremely low probability this summer. Question for you - isn't this about the time when utilities finish up with spring maintenance of their fossil fuel plants in preparation for summer? Bringing these units back on line should provide a demand boost.