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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: puborectalis who wrote (79566)7/6/2001 2:33:12 PM
From: t2  Respond to of 99985
 
The consumer will stop dead in his or her tracks after they see their mutual fund performance ending June.

This is what Greenspan is worried about as well and that is why we have that "Greenspan Put". A move below 2000 certainly increases the odds of a rate cut intermeeting since AG knows how important the markets are to consumer confidence.
Maybe the next cut will finally start weakening the dollar a little bit...the manufacturing sector needs that badly. They say that a weaker dollar will be bad for the market but at this point, that could be necessary.
Dropping bond yields could also do the trick without significant weakness in the dollar....there is of course a complicated connection betweeen these.



To: puborectalis who wrote (79566)7/6/2001 2:59:51 PM
From: JBTFD  Respond to of 99985
 
I'm not so sure. April 1 was pretty close to the low and we are still up quite a bit from then.

My fund is up 11% in 2Q.

<<The consumer will stop dead in his or her tracks after they see their mutual fund performance ending June.>>



To: puborectalis who wrote (79566)7/6/2001 3:02:39 PM
From: David Howe  Respond to of 99985
 
<< The consumer will stop dead in his or her tracks after they see their mutual fund performance ending June. >>

Their June reports will look good compared to the reports from the prior quarter. I don't think the June reports will have any impact on the consumer.

Other factors might, but not the one you mentioned.

IMO,
Dave