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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggamer who wrote (44183)	7/6/2001 5:39:31 PM
From: Carolyn	Respond to of 54805

Re killer aps: Industry Drives MMS Forward (7/6/2001) Seven wireless industry players have formed an initiative to drive development of Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS). The goal of the initiative is to raise industry awareness and promote a common vision of the standard, expected to be a killer application on 3G networks. The initiative includes CMG, Comverse, Ericsson, Logica, Motorola, Nokia and Siemens. "This is an informal initiative designed to demonstrate that we believe there is a strong market for MMS," said Comverse's marketing director Jonathan Shoreham. "Each company has its own separate plans for the technology but to be competitive we have to co-operate to build the market." The companies are hosting a major conference in Rome in September with the aim of bringing on board application developers and mobile network operators. MMS is a 3G partnership Project and WAP Forum standard, an evolutionary form of SMS that allows delivery of rich media content over 3G mobile networks. www.comverse.com For more information and stories in this area visit the UK's leading new media title at nma.co.uk New Media Age 2001 Centaur Communications Ltd or its licensors. All Rights Reserved

To: ggamer who wrote (44183)	7/6/2001 8:15:20 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

ggamer, Mike with the latest changes, are you comfortable to call QCOM the gorilla of 3G? Nope. I'm doubtful that the bulk of 3G will be a Gorilla Game. Even if 3G does somehow become one, it hasn't gotten to the chasm, much less crossed it. With no tornado, there is no Gorilla. The CDMA portion of the 3G market is a mass market unto itself. I believe the CDMA portion is a Gorilla Game and that Qualcomm is the Gorilla. The reason I clarify those distinctions is because not everyone agrees. --Mike Buckley

To: ggamer who wrote (44183)	7/6/2001 8:26:45 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Apollo, One of the killer apps is telecom companies running out of space and moving to 1X to increase their capacity. : ) GGamer is joking about that being a killer app, but that issue is truly at the core of removing a constraint. Despite his joke about it, it's a serious issue we shouldn't overlook. By the way, the next time you need inspiration for a second cool post in as many days, be sure to ask me something so I can again direct you to the manual. :) --Mike Buckley

To: ggamer who wrote (44183)	7/6/2001 9:05:15 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

GGamer, << Mike with the latest changes, are you comfortable to call QCOM the gorilla of 3G? >> I've been holding off on this post waiting for Mike to respond. I see he has, but I haven't peeked yet, so here goes my opinion on this FWIW. First and foremost, I think it is way to early to attempt to determine that, because there is no 3G in commercial use, and so far as I am concerned there will not be until a standardized version of 1xRTT/1xEV or 3GSM WCDMA is commercially available and launched and it may be too early to tell even at that time. [I accept the right of those who feel that 1xRTT at 144 kbps or even 307 kbps is 3G, to cll it 3G now that we are finally shipping MSM5105's and soon will be shipping MSM5100's - but I personally don't buy it & most of the world doesn't buy it]. It is also too early to tell exactly how the mix of cdma2000/3GSM WCDMA will shake out, but based on the large order book as of today, it appears that 3GSM WCDMA will predominate eventually. My most serious reservation about this is that from what I can tell at this stage, Qualcomm lacks proprietary control of the architecture of 3GSM WCDMA, regardless of the fact that they (along with others) have essential IP in WCDMA, and will enjoy a fine revenue stream from it. Until I convince myself that they have proprietary control of the architecture and if 3GSM WCDMA is indeed the predominant mode of 3G radio access, they are not the gorilla of 3G, and if they aren't then no company is, because this is committee based architecture if ever same existed, that will be implemented as the dominant CDMA 3G mode. It also is way too early to tell how well they will fare in competitively manufacturing WCDMA chipsets. If I recall their target is 50% and that is a VERY aggressive target, in what is going to be a very competitive market. I'm very much interested in others responses to this very good question that you asked. Here is some background on my long standing thought process on this subject: When I decided to turn in my long time position in NOK for a QCOM position in late 98, after doing my second solo GG exercise I determined to my own satisfaction that QCOM was the gorilla of cdma (cdmaOne because cdma2000 was vapourware at that time) and potentially a gorilla of 3G if not a gorilla of wireless. In arriving at that decision two and one half years ago I made several assumptions. Some of them were nuts on: * That Qualcomm & Ericsson would accept the ITU mandate to settle their differences. * That Qualcomm would give on its 5 principles and multiple harmonized radio access interfaces rather than a converged standard would emerge. * That Qualcomm essential CDMA IP could not be circumvented regardless that other IP would be deemed essential. * That 3G standards would be set by 2001 (end) and that 3G would commence rollout (albeit slowly) in 2003. * That China Unicom would adopt CDMA with dual-mode RUIM A few were at least partially valid: * That CDMA hypergrowth (100% YOY) would continue through at least the end of 2000, and perhaps slightly beyond. [It ended Q2 2000]. * That CDMA would continue to be the fastest growing technology in uninterrupted fashion indefinitely. [It ended Q2 2000 but could resume again]. * That CDMA market share would continuously increase. [it did not for long and CDMA has lost market share, but I expect this to reverse]. * That CDMA would achieve > 20% market share by 2003, worst case 2004. [Still possible, but not as probable as I once thought]. * That CDMA would be adopted by carriers in increasing numbers for new buildouts. (this considerably less than I anticipated). * That IS-136 TDMA actual growth and growth rate would decline. * That 3G harmonization would approach convergence. A few did not/have not materialized: * That GSM growth would plateau (quicker and to a greater degree than it has). * That ETSI (now 3GPP) would consider a cdma air interface instead of GPRS for their 2.5G migration. * That some CDMA overlays would be implemented. * That all cdmaOne carriers would choose cdma2000 as there technology migration for 3G IMT-2000 implementation, and that some IS-136 TDMA carriers or GSM carriers would join them. * That CDG would join 3GPP as an MRP, leveraging Qualcomm's position to significantly influence the evolved WCDMA standard. * That Qualcomm would influence and in so doing control the future evolution of WCDMA, giving them the competitive advantage a gorilla enjoys. So 2 1/2 years later I am inclined to think that it is entirely possible that there will be no 3G Gorilla ... ... but I also think that it is too darned early to tell. so I am content to hold Qualcomm as the gorilla of cdmaOne/cdma2000. Proprietary control of open architecture remains paramount in my opinion on your question, and market share of the architecture Qualcomm controls also enters into it. Right now, in addition to being the gorilla of cdmaOne/cdma2000, Qualcomm is the Chimp of wireless and everyone is out to "shoot the Chimp". JMHO. Best, - Eric -