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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (52763)	7/6/2001 10:40:26 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 53903

From Fred Hickey's newsletter: Speaking of DRAM disasters, Micron did report its biggest loss in history, as I expected. The problem was that non one cared. We'll get another chance for investors to care when Micron reports an even bigger loss next quarter. Spot DRAM prices are currently down another 50% from last quarter's average selling price. That means that revenue could come in at $600 million or less for the August quarter, versus $2.3 billion a year ago. Micron lost nearly $300 million pretax, before a $260 million inventory write-down last quarter on $800 million of sales. Assuming DRAM prices hold at these levels (and given the state of the PC market noted above, and the level of DRAM inventories worldwide, prices can't seem to list), Micron could almost lose as much money (half a billion dollars, before write-offs) as it has in sales this quarter. Micron cannot maintain its outrageous $24 billion market valuation given these circumstances. A target price of 10 (down 75%) would be more realistic. Micron's dire financials have forced them to slash capex spending about 44% next year. Every major semiconductor company in the world is cutting estimates. There's no way the Applied Materials, Novellus and KLA earnings estimates can hold on.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (52763)	7/7/2001 6:02:09 AM
From: mu_basher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Skeeter Maybe I'm on overload, we KNOW MU is in real trouble, there is not a reasonable argument why they should be at the price they have been for the last few months (even years). AMD warns with the possibilty of making a few pennies and it gets it's clock cleaned. MU misses by the largest loss ever sustained and it's price has held up - hopefully today MAY awaken some of those. CONDITIONS ARE NOT THE SAME as the 90's and every intelligent tech investor knows this or at least should know it. NOBODY ever mentions LEHI (except you), what a joke that is. YET, and I say yet time after time MU has weathered all the negative prospects - I just wonder if is ever going to happen.??? Greg