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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (79593)	7/7/2001 1:07:21 AM
From: Robert New	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Cant believe you bought EMC today on the magnitude of this warning. Given that the stock closed right at the lows of the day indicates that we'll see further downside on monday. Just a few weeks ago EMC was seeing firming in orders...what happened to that? Obviously few ceo's have visibility in this market. We are still seeing the fallout from the boom/bust cycle in tech at large. Given the current estimate of .05 for the quarter for EMC lets run a quick calculation. Extend this out for 4 qtrs which I admit is crude but you come up with a P/E of 108 based on the current price of $21.60. Now factor in that we are seeing a huge contraction in the earnings trend and this may be overly optimistic. Couple this with the fact that EMC is slashing prices (take a look at that big drop in margins) and it doesnt add up to a quick turnaround in my opinion. I prefer to let the dust settle and sift through the wreckage at that point. Time will tell as always...

To: American Spirit who wrote (79593)	7/7/2001 5:37:58 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Who give's a rat's ass how far something has fallen? ARBA has fallen over 90%, CMGI, AMZN et the same I believe. What about RHAT (99% guessing). Some will go under. Is something an even bigger buy when it is down 99.5%? Why are you so concerned with how far something has fallen? These stocks have horrible PEs, fundamentals that are not going to change any time soon. Perhpas there is a trend here. First the total 100% joke garbage falls (like Etoys) Second the 99.9% crap like AMZN falls out Third anything fiber takes a hit Fourth Chips take a hit Now we see software like SEBL VRTS MSFT etc standing tall (relatively). Remember when they said storage would never fall. Well we are hearing the same crap about software right now. Add QCOM to that mix as well. One by one by one they all fall, recover a bit (some more than others like software) then they do it again. Look at JNPR and CIEN. New 52 week lows. By your standards those should be screaming buys. By any rational valuation, they should be at $8 a share and they could easily get there. As long as you see some total 100% garbage like HOMS at 35 or whatever, you know the bottom is far far off and may take years to get there, one ratchet at a time. M