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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53933)	7/6/2001 11:00:33 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

You hit the nail on the head. What's happening now is like like the bullwhip affect. That's why I've often said the Fed should just but out and let the economy chart its own course. This is too much power for one man. Anyway, I agree with you about timelines too. 6 months is the estimate most people bandy about due to the supposed increase in velocity due to productivity increases brought on by technology. However, 6 months is the earliest guess, with most likelihood being around 12 months and virtual certainty of an affect by 18 months. Thus my prediction that we'd be lucky to see Cisco at $25 by the end of this year and $30 around Oct-Nov of next year. This economy has a way to go yet to recover. It's going to basically be a day trader's dream for the next 6 months to a year.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53933)	7/8/2001 9:59:26 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Jacob, Gottfried and threaders, the following quote is from the Bob Woodward book, MAESTRO. MAESTRO by Bob Woodward (Page 223) “According to Greenspan, Information technology, defined the current period. Something profoundly different had occurred. Computers and the Internet were at the root of the extraordinary productivity improvement. Computers allowed vastly better inventory management in a way that had been unimaginable only years before. What was truly remarkable, however, was the vast dissemination throughout society of the new technology and the speed of the dissemination. All of this dissemination added productivity growth throughout the economy. There was little question that further major advances lay ahead. They were truly in a capital equipment investment boom. . . Greenspan complimented Clinton on his efforts to use budget surpluses to reduce the federal debt. It’s a very powerful idea for the public, the president said, the idea of being debt free.” “If the federal government were debt free, Greenspan said, that would not take away its ability to do expansive things. Without debt, the government could eventually reborrow trillions of dollars if necessary in a crisis or an emergency. It would be available for the right moment. The surpluses and absence of deficits would also help keep long-term interest rates down, because the federal government would not be borrowing, and therefore, making more money available for business borrowing.”<b/> IMO, GS really screwed things up. The economic, "Philip Curve," philosophy on the FED who believed that we would have inflation below 6% did not take into consideration the above as the reason for low unemployment which was created by low interest rates and consequently increased corporate capital expenditures. With increased capital expenditures employees could be more productive and therefore keep down inflation. With GP's increase in rates, IMO, he caused the lowering of productivity, increased unemployment and increased inflation. It is a vicious circle.