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To: John Madarasz who wrote (6453)7/6/2001 9:45:02 PM
From: John Madarasz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
3 year weekly CBOE Put/Call Ratio

stockcharts.com[h,a]waclnnmy[df][pb50!f]



To: John Madarasz who wrote (6453)7/6/2001 10:53:04 PM
From: marginmike  Respond to of 209892
 
Wow I dont feel bad staying short now-g-



To: John Madarasz who wrote (6453)7/7/2001 9:08:26 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 209892
 
I think the Ameritraders are going to get their heads handed to them -- just mho on this go-round. By my read, they are still a little underwater from all the buying off the top.

People, me too, have been conditioned by recent events, they always are. What are these events? Well, we had the most spectacular run off lows in the history of American markets. This was followed by a rather trusty range that one could swing trade rather reliably. Hmmm... can you say "bear market rally followed by distribution top"?

This strikes me as a setup for major decline, or perhaps better-said, this is a situation where for the first time in many weeks, a major wipeout seems like a much higher possibility. The chances may well have, say, tripled. Yes, the raw chance of a crash-like decline may only be 10%, but I think it was probably only 3% a few weeks ago.

There simply is no fear.

People who read this as Allan going bearish along with the other late shorts are misreading me. I am no more bearish than last week. In fact, I am looking for a decent technical bounce by Tuesday (where I hope to take some money from these late shorts -g).

I challenge anybody reading this to give me a single decent reason to be long heading into the summer. (Technical bounces aside.)

Carrying lots o' cash and dusting off crash helmet for a hot summer... Yours, AA.



To: John Madarasz who wrote (6453)7/8/2001 11:38:27 AM
From: sun-tzu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Traders will always try to buy low and sell high regardless of short or long bias. The Ameritrade Index is best used as a contrarian indicator when retail sentiment FOLLOWS market trend.

AI up when the market ramps is a sell signal
AI down on a major tank is a buying opportunity

But yes it does have some decent comedy value otherwise.

(~*)^(*~)