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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (79609)	7/6/2001 11:36:45 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

You still haven't answered the question. Three months ago we needed 400 new power plants now we need none. We needed to drill in ANWAR now we don't. What happened? Was it the appearance of a potential policing authority where there were none? Namely the loss of control in the Senate and Dascle's power to investigate? Things just don't go from A to Z in three months because a few more tankers came in. And why are energy lobbyists now offering to give back billions? They don't just do that you know. They are trying to hush up something very big, very-very big. What does this mean to the markets? Maybe that energy stocks are no longer a hedge (though they'll have great earnings for awhile). But also maybe that the whole thing is going to gradually turn around and reverse itself, that is, the entire mind-set of Bush's first 100 days and the market's behavior. Everything politically and economically could reverse itself within the next year. Bush will still be there of course, but maybe not Cheney. And I'm not talking about his heart problems. Remember what happened to Spiro Agnew? If this happens Bush is a lame duck for the next 2.5 years. This could bring about a much more moderate government and potentially a huge market rally. For some reason the market just doesn't like Bush. Except for oil, drug and tobacco stocks of course, his three biggest soft money "donors" (putting it nicely). Oh yes heads are gonna roll. And the times they will be a changin'. The markets too. But it's going to take a little time. If I had longterm money to invest I'd buy the hell out of techs now. But I don't. Got to get to trying to make some. gg

To: bobby beara who wrote (79609)	7/7/2001 7:45:57 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, American is right on this one, and just because "we are paranoids" it does not mean we are not being followed. There is no shortage in crude whatsoever, crude like most other commodities (including gold) is and has been in over supply. I alluded to that last October just before the elections, except I got it wrong, I thought it will not be sufficient to tip the election in favor of Bush, it did....That was one of the reasons, my "calls" around election day were off as well, the stale ae really threw a loop of "unexpected exogenous" effects in my "calculations" then. Of course, non of that had any major influence on the markets after that, that already written in "stone" as early as April 2000. I remember about writing in this thread about the current bear last April, I was wrong about that too, I had the bottom at 1900, and history and the market have proven me quite wrong. Zeev