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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jamok99 who wrote (46539)	7/7/2001 9:45:00 PM
From: milo_morai	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Jamok, not sure what your entry point was or how long you've been holding. AMD is still in pretty good shape for the next 24 to 36 months. P4 wasn't as good as people thought it would be. Here's some things to consider. nForce with LDT MB's to come out soon.(Aug 10th or 11th) Laptop revenues in Q3 Athlon MP could get Business win in Q3 or Q4 Can't tell you want to do, but I'm not selling till Sledgehammer is out.

To: jamok99 who wrote (46539)	7/7/2001 11:32:37 PM
From: kapkan4u	Respond to of 275872

<I'm seriously thinking about liquidating 1/2 to all of my AMD position on Monday.> Chances are good you would be able to repurchase them back at around $15. Of course it can go the other way too if AMD sells enough Athlon 4s in Q3. I will be looking for global markets to go into a tail spin much worse than in the Fall of 1998, before starting to build any long positions. Kap

To: jamok99 who wrote (46539)	7/8/2001 10:18:21 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

jamok99: A negative overall economic environment and indications of an onset of negative earnings trend for AMD are very real causes for concern, imo. AMD's warning was certainly off the negative end of my "estimate" scale as it was for others as well, judging by Friday's AMD price debacle. It is my experience that when surprises of this magnitude occur, it is some time before offsetting reversals come into play. Consequently I am out of AMD until "warmer" winds begin to blow. The only missing piece for me at the moment is the comparative q2 performance of INTC...but if $0.11, although good news for INTC and perhaps the tech indices, that could not be construed as good news for AMD as it would be indicative of INTC's having closed the gap in q2...but if INTC is also off hte negative "estimate" scale and comes in red, not good news for INTC or the techs, and probably not good for AMD although it would cast AMD more favourably in a relative sense. No matter what INTC's q2 looks like, it is unlikely to provide any boost for AMD... A scenario that perhaps needs to be revisited at this time, is the possibility of both AMD and INTC testing once again their yearly lows in q3. A negative surprise by INTC might accelerate the timing of occurrence of such a possible event.

To: jamok99 who wrote (46539)	7/8/2001 10:40:25 AM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Jamok, Re: I'm seriously thinking about liquidating 1/2 to all of my AMD position on Monday, at a very substantial loss, based on what appears to be a pretty dismal short-term picture, and a questionable long-term one. I don't think that in the short-term the stock will rise (except maybe for a dead-cat bounce which would be a selling opportunity IMO). However, there's one big uncertainty, and that is next week's CC. AMD will be, I assume, very cautious with guidance. There's the possibility that they will guide for losses in Q3 but I don't expect that. Probably guidance will be something like "slightly higher revenues" and EPS about break-even based on the expected seasonal upturn in Q3. That's probably also what is priced in in the stock right now, so I don't think it will substantially rise or fall on the news. So we have to look beyond guidance and especially look out for more clues about either AMD bombing prices (easy to determine, just look at Pricewatch and check Buggi's ASP tables) and roadmap slippage (e.g. Palomino further delayed). Especially the latter is cause for great concern IMO. I've heard that the 2 GHz P4 will be introduced on August, 26th and if AMD isn't able to at least reach 1.53 GHz this quarter, ASPs will fall further. If AMD delays Palomino beyond September, I'd immediately sell (and even short) the stock. Also important is the Intel CC in two weeks (July, 17th). If they don't stick to their previous guidance (seasonal upturn for Q3 and Q4) and guide down, I expect all semiconductor stocks to drop further, independently from what they are forecasting. Intel is the bellwether stock for chips and what they say is IMO very important for the outlook of the whole industry. Also important is to see how good Intel did last quarter. If they fall behind estimates by more than a few percent and AMD clearly gained market-share against them, that would bode well for AMD's future. If Intel did okay and could maintain overall ASPs, AMD is in a world of hurt because Intel's strategy worked to lower prices where AMD can compete and get monopoly pricing for the rest of their products. So, what should you to? I don't want to give investment advice but I'd like to give some general thoughts: Downside risk for AMD right now is IMO limited to either $20 (big support) or the $15 range. I would hold at least until the earnings CC and look for clues what really is going on (not what Jerry thinks, see above). Of course, there's the risk that AMD will guide for losses and the stock will drop further but I doubt that. After the CC I'd sell the stock on any bounce and wait for the Intel CC. It's IMO too risky to hold the stock until after the Intel CC because the news could be bleak. If Intel suffered from market-share losses but sticks to old guidance for a seasonal upturn and if AMD can execute their previous set roadmap, I'd probably buy back in. Andreas