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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (79661)	7/7/2001 7:55:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99985

Zeev I am trying to remain flexible (but it is damn hard). Sticking with my QQQ puts until 1850 and I will cash out and let someone else have the rest even though I think we go lower. I did not let that last whipsaw get me and am somewhat proud of it. Someone please force me to go long at the bottom! My best case scenario (for me) is a fall to 1800 giving me plenty of time to get out, then hope for a nice bounce to reload. A bounce is probably most likely near expiry but we could see the Feb trick again where we had multiple rallies (all dieing in exactly the same spot) 1 week in front of expiry. This lasted almost 4 days (plenty of time for the powers to be to get full short at the local top), then we sank during the entire expiry week and long after when everyone was expecting the options expiry rally. That is one possible scenario to watch for. Either way, I have no doubt they hedge higher sometime that week or 10 days before. Since I believe people will be holding thru earnings and will want to buy them, I predict they will hold that rally off as long as possibe then suck everyone in on another bottom call for the "earnings reverse run" disaster. For that bottom call to be effective they need a convincing fall to 1850 or so first on a mini-panic. That is my radish reading anyway. Radishes, unfortunately are not as nimble as turnips. ggg M