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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: darbyc who wrote (44215)	7/8/2001 12:12:47 PM
From: alanrs	Respond to of 54805

I began investing in March of 2000. FWIW, I began investing 2 months before the 1987 crash. I put $5,000 into a couple of Fidelity mutual funds and in 3 months it turned into $2500. I cashed out and thought about it a while, only really getting back in seriously (for me) in the early 90's. 10 years later I am far better off for having been in the market, even with the last 18 months. It is true that the last umpty-ump (18?) years have been the greatest bull market ever, and that it is possible that the next ??? years could be terrible. I don't know. Nobody does. If you have the time, and I'm guessing that you have at least 20-30 years, it is hard to find investment vehicles that are likely to outperform the market. Your choice of companies looks pretty good to me, in that most of them will probably still be around for a while. I own a few of the same names (5 of 11). The two problems with index funds, as I see it, are that it guarantees market performance, and that it is hard to learn anything about investing from the experience. That being said, I also wanted to say that diversification between asset classes has also served me well, and I also have some investments in mutual funds whose style or focus is totally different from technology growth. Good luck. ARS

To: darbyc who wrote (44215)	7/8/2001 2:07:11 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

darbyc, My response to your post is likely to raise more questions than answers, but I'll try to be helpful. I feel that I need to respond to my portfolio in some way because I am not planning on being actively involved with it for the next two years. I think before we can give you an appropriate response, we need to know what you mean by not being "actively involved." Not knowing your response, I will mention that if you're not willing to commit the time to remain abreast of the fundamental news about a company and its industry, you shouldn't be invested in a common stock. If that's the case, I think you should sell your stock and put your assets in an S&P 500 index fund. Before you come to that conclusion I want to remind you that remaining abreast of the important fundamentals doesn't necessarily require as much time as most of us might think. If you're better at intuitively understanding the ways of technology than this carpetologist, you won't need to wade through message after message sorting everything out. Instead, you'll only need to glance at the headlines of 95% of the press releases and carefully read the entire text of the remaining 5%. Even though I don't know how you feel about all of that, I'll respond to the options you presented with the hope that you're given something to think about before making a decision. Do absolutely nothing. ... Come back to my portfolio in a few years. Because technology adoption changes so fast and because valuation of stocks changes so rapidly, I think that's a dangerous proposal. A decision to own common stock requires at least a minimal amount of periodic re-evaluation. index fund. This is maybe where I should have been all along. Accept my loss as an education. It's possible that you should have been in an index fund all along, but the decision to buy those technology stocks in March 2000 isn't necessarily the indicator. And I don't think a loss itself ever provides an education. If you know why you would or wouldn't make the same decisions again given similar circumstances, you've recieved the education. If you don't know why you would or wouldn't want to make the same decisions again, the experience probably hasn't been very educational. Ironically, if that's the case, you're probably right that the loss has been the only educational aspect and that you probably should be invested in an index fund. Try to evaluate my portfolio, sell the stocks I'm not comfortable with and put that money into an index fund. This option worries me since I may currently lack energy, time, and confidence to make anything but a gut decision. Your ability to be honest with yourself (and us) is admirable. With that kind of integrity, I'm confident that your ultimate decision about what to do with your portfolio will be in your best interest in the long term. An idea that might be worth considering: Sell all but one stock. You probably have at least a vague notion about which one of all the stocks you own will prove to have the most control over its value chain over the coming years. Re-evaluate that. Of all the stocks you own, decide which one you would select if you were allowed to only own one stock. Maybe keep all of your current shares, maybe only some of them. By keeping just one stock, you eliminate almost all of the time needed to follow your current portfolio. Yet the decision to keep one stock provides you the opportunity and motivation to continue sharpening your investing skills in the event that later in life you'll want them to use them to a greater extent. Good luck and let us know if we can be of more help. And congratulations on your decision to become an educator! I hope your new career proves to be exciting! --Mike Buckley

To: darbyc who wrote (44215)	7/8/2001 2:38:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Respond to of 54805

Take an amount of money equal to that which you began with, and invest it all in the same names in the coming weeks when the QQQ's drop under 32 or when the S&P 500 drops under 1040, whichever comes first. Then sell EVERYTHING when the QQQ's recover back above 50 or the S&P 500 recovers back above 1320 by next summer. That should bail you almost completely out, and have you ready to buy the final low in late 2003 or 2004.

To: darbyc who wrote (44215)	7/9/2001 8:38:20 AM
From: Apollo	Respond to of 54805

Hi Stan: I like the advice many gave you last year, and my only recommendation would be to consider option #1, ie, do nothing. You're in for the long haul. You made some choices. Unless the companies or their businesses have fundamentally changed, I would stick with the choices you made. best, Apollo

To: darbyc who wrote (44215)	7/9/2001 12:32:52 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 54805

>>I've recently been laid-off from my job at INTC and am using this opportunity to change careers. I'll be going back to school for several years (to become an elementary school teacher!!). That's fantastic, Stan. Based on the multiple exclamation points, I'm assuming that this has been a long term ambition. If it took a layoff to help you make that decision, you might consider sending Intel a thank you card. I wish you the best with your portfolio decisions. You deserve some special consideration from Lady Luck since you started your tech investment career at the worst possible time. >> Though I feel naïve and a bit out of my league, I built my portfolio after "some" reasonable thought and research There are many of us who could make that same statement right now, including folks with decades of experience and lots of tech smarts. Don't be too hard on yourself. uf

To: darbyc who wrote (44215)	7/11/2001 12:13:36 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

here's a Q&A from this crowd that's no less riveting, but a bit more concise... Message 16057192 ctb/A

To: darbyc who wrote (44215)	7/13/2001 6:58:43 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Darbyc: There is a time to be in the markets and a time to be out of them. Currently, stock prices (in spite of their having been smacked) are in La-La Land, as PEs remain high due to imploding profits. Aside from the fact that the U.S. economy is in shrink mode, global demand also continues to implode so there is little chance for a profit rebound in the near term. Hype and hope keep the suckers coming back to buy the dip, but this is a well established (and well deserved) bear market, so buying the dip just ensures further losses. Not for anybody to tell you what to do, but it makes little sense to ignore the myriad of signals that the economy is entering a spiral dive. The number one rule of successful investing is "don't lose your capital" (having done just that more than once in the past, I know it is a painful experience). Hang on to what you still have by converting to cash and waiting until the market is hated by every single person you know. That will be the time to go long again. Best, Earlie

To: darbyc who wrote (44215)	7/14/2001 1:03:04 PM
From: OZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Hello there, This is the first time in years that I have posted to an investor or on an investing board. Your post just kind of prompted me to do so and to say what I do tell friends that try to get into the market as a hobby. First let me say that I am a full time trader and short term investor/trader for some of my accounts (401k). I think that if you really do not want to put in the time to monitor all of those companies but do want to be invested, then you should transfer that money to high quality Technology Mutual fund instead of an Index Fund. Let someone else do the homework for you and still be invested in technology (which seems to be the flavor you and others around here prefer). This would be more like keeping the ones you have than doing a more diversified index fun, but IMO a far better option for you. The interesting thing is that people seem to be implying that if you had already learned more (like they have) that this would have been prevented when the reality is that everyone that utilized buy and hold investment principals got hosed that started investing a couple of years ago regardless of what they know (on paper). I mean just look at the portfolios on this thread's header. That is why I quit being a sitting duck years ago. But I think those that do have or have retained that seemingly blind and longer term way of looking at things can be rewarded by picking things up now when it does not "feel so good." One of the few tenets that some investors share with some traders is the "Contrarian" way of thinking and it is no coincidence. Oz