Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rainwater who wrote (1888)	7/8/2001 2:33:05 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2293

>...read Wit SoundView's opinion... about capital spending...... again just another opinion in time... but a controversial one nevertheless. Better early than late.> controversial,yes,but worthy of consideration. i am actually looking at this group as a possible buy on a selective basis,not much left on the short side. thanx for info.Max

To: rainwater who wrote (1888)	7/10/2001 2:27:09 PM
From: dday	Respond to of 2293

"a lot of the discussion here about Price/Revenues is missing the main issue"... Yes and No. Yes, there are other considerations other than PSR's in determining whether a stock is fair value. And I agree wholeheartedly that you must look at the potential of the entire product line. The real question regarding PowerMux and assorted Avanex products is whether they are simply innovations or discontinuous innovations. If they are truly discontinuous, have they crossed the proverbial chasm? Do they truly have a competitive advantage that is sustainable? Once deployed, are there high switching costs? Are there barriers to entry present? My thinking is that if the Avanex products are simply innovations, then, they could easily be displaced by other more innovative products (the 'better mousetrap'). Without the sustainable competitive advantage that barriers to entry and high switching costs bring, AVNX and other optical component makers really deserve just 'traditional' valuation. For tech, this could be anywhere from .8 PSR to 3x revenue. If AVNX has, as many proclaim, unique and essential products in the all optical network that have sustainable competitive advantages, then, clearly, one can set the bar higher. Maybe 3x to even 7x is revenue would be appropriate. From my viewpoint, the answers to those questions are not at all clear at this juncture. That is why I am here reading this thread and GG and others. Regards, Bob